Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
243 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.  THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  AFTERNOON
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A TROUGH FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SOUTH
INTO EASTERN COLORADO.  THERE WAS ALSO A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...
BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST...INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  FOR
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AS
A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE WAVE...H85
WARM AIR ADVECTION/THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS COULD ALSO HELP GENERATE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA...PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH THE 12Z NAM AND LATEST RUC SHOWING AN INSTABILITY
AXIS STRETCHING FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ONCE THE UPPER
WAVE PASSES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IT
SHOULD DO LITTLE MORE THAN SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOWING LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER.  12Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
GOOD MIXING...WITH MIXING TO...OR ABOVE H85 POSSIBLE. H85
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +14 TO +17...WHICH WOULD YIELD
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE VALUES ARE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST NAM/GFS
GUIDANCE...SO WILL NOT STRAY FROM THOSE NUMBERS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW.  WILL PLACE THE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND BEGINS
TO NOSE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  EXTENDED MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH A
CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...THEN DIFFERENCES
BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE ECMWF
FAVORS A QUICKER...LESS DEEP SOLUTION THAN THE LATEST GFS.

BEGINNING ON THURSDAY...NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA DURING THE MORNING.
INSTABILITY PROGS SHIFT FAIRLY RAPIDLY TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY
...BUT WITH POPS LOW HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR A
FEW HOURS.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.  MODELS
SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA IN THE RRQ OF A JET STREAK CROSSING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND IN LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHING
SOUTHEAST FROM MONTANA.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THIS BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SMALL PCPN CHCS FOR PCPN.  WHETHER OR NOT SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM AND COOL FRONT IS NOT
IN FULL AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND FOR NOW HAVE KEPT CHCS JUST
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA IN BETTER DYNAMICS WHILE POPS ARE SILENT
FARTHER SOUTH.  SATURDAY LOOKS TO SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY BEHIND THE
EXITING WAVE...THE ANOTHER DECENT WAVE LOOKS TO IMPACT OUR REGION
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE LATEST GFS HAS
BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO MORE IN THE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME WHEREAS THE EVENING RUN OF THE ECMWF SUGGESTS
DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.  ATTEMPTING TO TIME OUT THE
WAVES IN THE LATTER PERIODS IS CHALLENGING AND GIVEN THE PATTERN
WHERE LITTLE EFFORT SEEMS TO PRODUCE PCPN...HAVE CARRIED POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  DAY 7 REMAINS DRY FOR NOW BUT
WILL BE REEVALUATED AS TIMING OF WAVES BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD BE WITHIN A CATEGORY OF SEASONAL NORMALS
WHICH AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS AND THE MID 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL DOMINATE INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THE ODDS OF THEM IMPACTING KGRI APPEARS SMALL ENOUGH
TO NOT MENTION WITH A TEMPO GROUP. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
428 PM CDT TUE MAY 05 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     HAIL             GOTHENBURG              40.93N 100.16W
05/05/2009  E0.25 INCH       DAWSON             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

NWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
447 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

NEZ060-052215-
DAWSON-
447 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

  WESTERN DAWSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

AT 446 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILLOW ISLAND...OR 23
MILES WEST OF LEXINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WILLOW ISLAND BY 510 PM CDT
  COZAD BY 515 PM CDT

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 213 AND 233.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4077 10022 4089 10022 4102 9980 4077 9975
      4069 10021 4070 10022 4076 10022
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 252DEG 17KT 4080 10017

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
509 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

NEZ060-052245-
DAWSON-
509 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

  CENTRAL DAWSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LEXINGTON.

AT 508 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF EUSTIS...OR 15 MILES WEST OF
LEXINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LEXINGTON BY 545 PM CDT

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 222 AND 242.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4083 10016 4090 9970 4070 9965 4070 9996
      4069 9999 4069 10014
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 261DEG 18KT 4075 10002