Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1223 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS ON THE WAY WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. COULD GET SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG
WITH SOME HAIL. GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
OUTFLOW. COULD HAVE SOME LOWER MVFR CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION AND STRATUS LEFT BEHIND EARLY MORNING ON
FRIDAY. ANY LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009/

AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN WITH...BUT LATER
IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WE COULD GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
STORMS. COULD HAVE SOME LOWER MVFR CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION AND STRATUS LEFT BEHIND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING ON FRIDAY. ANY LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BY LATE MORNING
FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009/

DISCUSSION...PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CAP SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT CONVECTION WILL FIRE
FURTHER WEST AND COULD MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL JET REALLY KICKS UP BY LATE EVENING
WITH NOSE OF JET POINTED RIGHT AT OUR CWA. CONSEQUENTLY...INCREASED
POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE DECENT
INSTABILITY AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO HEIGHTEN THE THREAT OF
PREDOMINATELY ELEVATED SUPERCELLS LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS LATE TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
EXPECT A NICE DRY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER
AROUND INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE WESTERN CONUS ON
SATURDAY. THE TROUGH OPENS UP INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FORCING THAT ALONG WITH AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA OR POINTS JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA. THESE
STORMS SHOULD THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL FAIRLY STRONG ON
SATURDAY AT AROUND 50 TO 60 KTS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
HOWEVER...AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IS QUESTIONABLE. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND PERHAPS MORE LIKELY IF
INSTABILITY IMPROVES.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ON MONDAY...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO START
THE WEEK. THE FORECAST THEN BECOMES VERY CHALLENGING BY DAYS 5
THROUGH 7 WITH OVERALL FLOW PATTERN GENERALLY SHOWING A RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. THIS
GENERALLY SPELLS OUT DRY WEATHER...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF
A SHORT WAVE OR TWO TRYING TO RIDE THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY KICK OFF A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...WILL JUST INCLUDE A FEW ISOLATED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRO MID TO LATE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE ABOUT AS COOL AS THEY WILL BE THE
WHOLE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. TEMPERATURES THEN RISE TO
AROUND 90 OR BETTER BY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL
LIKELY BE EARLY TO MID WEEK WHILE THE RIDGE IS MOST SQUARELY
OVERHEAD.

AVIATION...18Z TAF. AT THE ONSET OF THE TAF PERIOD...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOME CU WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
ONCE AGAIN WITH TIMING FOR KGRI OCCURRING MAINLY AFTER DARK.
STORMS SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KGRI
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...HEINLEIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-191200-
VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-
HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-
FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1224 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY PRESENT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A BEAVER CITY
TO BLUE HILL TO GENEVA LINE THROUGH 5 AM. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING DURING THE MID TO LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE ARE INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A BEAVER CITY TO BLUE HILL TO GENEVA
LINE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

KSZ005>007-017>019-191200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-
1224 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE ARE INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
147 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 AM     HAIL             JUNIATA                 40.59N 98.51W
06/19/2009  E0.75 INCH       ADAMS              NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PENNY SIZE HAIL

&&

PFANNKUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
148 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 AM     HAIL             KENESAW                 40.62N 98.66W
06/19/2009  E1.75 INCH       ADAMS              NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL HAIL

&&

PFANNKUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
150 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0148 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW HASTINGS          40.60N 98.43W
06/19/2009  E56 MPH          ADAMS              NE   ASOS

            WIND GUST AT HASTINGS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT

&&

PFANNKUCH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>