Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Hastings, NE

000 
WWUS83 KGID 202254
RFWGID

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
554 PM CDT MON APR 20 2009

NEZ040-041-048-049-063-064-076-077-087-210000-
/O.EXP.KGID.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-090420T2300Z/
GREELEY-NANCE-MERRICK-POLK-HAMILTON-YORK-CLAY-FILLMORE-THAYER-
554 PM CDT MON APR 20 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDED THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES:
IN NEBRASKA...40...41...48...49...63...64...76...77...87

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RISES. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1232 PM CDT MON APR 20 2009

.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. THESE WINDS SHOULD LET UP AFTER SUNSET
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT MON APR 20 2009/

DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES.

WATER VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE IN THE WEST. BOTH
ARE NEGATIVELY TILTED...LEAVING US WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE A
CHALLENGE. SEEMS TO BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS...BUT AM
SENDING AN UPDATE TO THE ORIGINAL FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
FILLING IN THAT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE. LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A
BIT MORE CLOUDY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SO I KNOCKED DOWN
TEMPERATURES THERE...BUT KEPT THEM UP MORE IN THE EAST. THIS COULD
CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE FOR TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AS
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE FLOW COULD BRING A BIT OF CLOUDINESS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

KEPT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO AM
RELUCTANT TO INTRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE
PAINTING SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA WITH THE AID OF A LOW-
LEVEL JET. COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION FIRES
UP AND MOVES EAST...BUT AGAIN...VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE RIGHT NOW.

GENERALLY WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AS
BOIVERIFY CONTINUES TO DEMONSTRATE A COOL BIAS OF MODEL
PERFORMANCE. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE SOME DECENT DOWNSLOPING ON
TUESDAY TO THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL.

BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD WARMER LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND A SLOWER COLD
FRONT PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND. DID NOT CHANGE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY...BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST MUCH WARMER HIGHS FOR
SATURDAY AS WELL WITH THE COOLER AIR MOVING IN LATER...AND EVEN
THEN...THE BULK OF THE COOLER AIR IS KEPT NORTH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
506 AM CDT MON APR 20 2009

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
211015-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
506 AM CDT MON APR 20 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

HEINLEIN