Tornado Warning 45, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WWUS54 KFWD 290617
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
117 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

TXC217-251-290645-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0045.000000T0000Z-091029T0645Z/
JOHNSON TX-HILL TX-
117 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN HILL AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES...

AT 116 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF
COVINGTON...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  COVINGTON BY 125 AM CDT...
  ITASCA AND RIO VISTA BY 130 AM CDT...
  GRANDVIEW BY 140 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

COVINGTON IS IN THE DIRECT PATH OF THIS STORM...RESIDENTS OF 
COVINGTON ARE ENCOURAGED TO TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY.

MOVE TO AN INTERIOR BATHROOM...CLOSET...OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR BUILDING. COVER YOURSELF WITH BLANKETS...PILLOWS...OR A
MATTRESS FOR PROTECTION.

&&

LAT...LON 3233 9709 3206 9715 3206 9742 3234 9740
      3235 9709
TIME...MOT...LOC 0616Z 196DEG 26KT 3210 9729

$$

000 
WWUS54 KFWD 290628
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
128 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

TXC217-251-290645-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0045.000000T0000Z-091029T0645Z/
JOHNSON TX-HILL TX-
128 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN HILL AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES...

AT 126 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
COVINGTON...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  PARKER AT 130 AM CDT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO AN INTERIOR BATHROOM...CLOSET...OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR BUILDING. COVER YOURSELF WITH BLANKETS...PILLOWS...OR A
MATTRESS FOR PROTECTION.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3233 9709 3206 9715 3206 9742 3234 9740
      3235 9709
TIME...MOT...LOC 0626Z 193DEG 32KT 3223 9726

$$

000 
WWUS54 KFWD 290638
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
138 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

TXC217-251-290648-
/O.EXP.KFWD.TO.W.0045.000000T0000Z-091029T0645Z/
JOHNSON TX-HILL TX-
138 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HILL AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON
COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 145 AM CDT...

AT 138 AM CDT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE TORNADO
WARNING WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.
THE TORNADO WARNING HAS EXPIRED.

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS WERE
STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3233 9709 3206 9715 3206 9742 3234 9740
      3235 9709
TIME...MOT...LOC 0638Z 193DEG 32KT 3233 9723

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1119 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2009

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

TONIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS DROPPING INTO IFR. DECKS BELOW 1000FT
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING DFW AND METRO SITES BY 11Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 11Z THROUGH
16Z WITH CIGS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 1000FT. CONDITIONS IMPROVING INTO
MVFR BY 20Z.

THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS BECOME LIGHT OUT OF NORTHWEST BY 01Z
FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
FINAL UPDATE...AS NEW 4KM WRF/NAM MODELS HAVE COME IN. A STRONG
160 KT UPPER JET DIGGING ACROSS NV/SRN CA...WHILE 130 KTS NOTED
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF KS/CO/WRN NE. THUS...THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLOW WITH ANY EWD MOVEMENT THROUGH 12Z...AS LINEAR
FORCING ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK CONTINUES AND COULD SEE
THE SRN END OF THIS FORCING EASE INTO FAR WRN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK
OR 12Z. STRONGEST THETA-E ADVECTION IN WARM SECTION TO BE FROM
ARKLATEX TOWARD RED RIVER COUNTIES AS CAP SLOWLY RISES AND WEAKENS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CANT RULE OUT A ROGUE SEVERE STORM WITH ISOLATE
HEAVIER RAINFALL IN WAA REGIME...BUT EXPECT BETTER CHANCES OF
SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE FAR W/NW COUNTIES JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK...SHUNTING EWD ON THURSDAY AS SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS EWD
OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES/FOUR-CORNERS. UPDATE SENT.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2009/
MOISTURE SURGE CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. 70
DEWPOINTS ARE THROUGH HOUSTON WITH 60 DEWPOINTS NOW ENTERING THE
METROPLEX. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH
GREATER THAN 70 DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS BY
MORNING. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S TO THE WEST.

STRONG...DEEP TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
IS BRINGING HEAVY SNOWS TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE 150+
KNOT NORTH WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH CAUSING IT TO DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND IS SLOWING UP THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE 12Z
MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS AND HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE
WESTERN ZONES AROUND 9 AM...THROUGH THE METROPLEX AROUND 1 PM AND
TO THE EASTERN ZONES BY 5 PM.

THE GFS HAS HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. THE GFS USUALLY OVER DOES THE QPF IN THIS
SITUATION AND WILL UNDERCUT THE 80 POPS THE 12Z MAV GENERATES BY
10 TO 20 PERCENT WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE NAM.

BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE NEAR PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WHICH
WOULD INDICATE A LINEAR MODE TO THE CONVECTION. EXPECT THERE TO BE
A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND IT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
SEVERE PARAMETERS SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
INDIVIDUAL BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE LINE. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR FOR A POSSIBLE SPIN UP OR TWO ALONG THE LINE OF
CONVECTION. TORNADO CHANCES WILL BE GREATER IF A DISCRETE STORM IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM AIR REGIME. THE ONE...MAIN LIMITATION
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS THE AVAILABLE CAPE. THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT DOES ALLOW FOR THE EASTERN ZONES TO SEE
THE LINE OF CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE NOON TIME FRAME. IF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN EVEN FURTHER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCREASES DUE TO FURTHER SURFACE HEATING.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS ON TOP OF
VERY SATURATED GROUND WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN A VERY QUICK
TIME FRAME. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
NO CHANGES TO IT.

WILL HOLD ON TO POPS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 700 MB RANGE
COMBINES WITH NEAR SATURATION AND PRODUCES LIGHT RAINFALL.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SHUT OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY...SUNNY AND PLEASANT FOR HALLOWEEN. THE DRY
WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

85/NH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  73  48  66  43 /  50 100  40  50  10
WACO, TX              71  74  48  63  45 /  30  90  40  60  10
PARIS, TX             64  77  50  60  40 /  60 100  60  50  10
DENTON, TX            67  75  47  64  39 /  60 100  30  50  10
MCKINNEY, TX          68  75  46  65  39 /  60 100  40  50  10
DALLAS, TX            70  76  47  66  43 /  50 100  40  50  10
TERRELL, TX           69  76  49  60  42 /  50 100  50  60  10
CORSICANA, TX         68  78  49  65  41 /  40  90  50  60  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  75  47  63  42 /  30  80  50  60  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123-133>135-144>148-157>162-
174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
954 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-291200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
954 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...A SQUALL LINE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS NORTHWEST OF A
COMANCHE...WEATHERFORD...GAINESVILLE LINE. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST...
BUT MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. SINCE THE GROUND IS ALREADY
SATURATED...ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF WHICH COULD PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AFTER 4 AM...
FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THURSDAY
ALONG AND EAST OF A GAINESVILLE TO GATESVILLE LINE. WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND THE HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING. GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND MAY BE NEEDED FURTHER EAST NEAR
THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

05/