Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
614 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

.AVIATION...
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE METROPLEX THIS MORNING
AS WARM AIR ADVECTIONS SHOWERS DEVELOP. WACO MAY SEE A FEW HOURS
OF LIFR CIGS AS WELL. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH CONVECTION REDEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF
MOST TAF SITES. DAL AND ACT WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE LATER ACTIVITY
SO HAVE INCLUDED TSRA LONGER AT THOSE SITES. MODELS INDICATE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR MVFR FOG SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
BY 19/00Z AS FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL ARRIVE
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE METROPLEX. SH/13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2009/
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW NEAR THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH SEVERAL STRONG VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND
ENTIRE SYSTEM. LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE SHOT AT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BEFORE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND RAIN CHANCES TAPER.
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AND THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING IN AREA OF MODERATE WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FROM UPPER LOW. NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS POSING A HAIL THREAT.

BY MIDDAY...DRYLINE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD STILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...AND INTO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS BUT INCREASING LIFT FROM UPPER LOW AND WEAK FORCING ALONG
DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM WACO NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM BOTH THE
GFS/NAM INDICATE A MINIMALLY CAPPED...MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITHIN WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL WOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. SO FOR TODAY...WILL HAVE
HIGH POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AND KEEP SOME 30/40 POPS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

BY THIS EVENING THINGS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AS UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST. SEVERAL NICE DAYS OF WEATHER IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STRONG
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN US BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  55  73  49  75 /  40  20   5   0   0
WACO, TX              76  54  77  48  77 /  60  20   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             69  54  71  45  71 /  50  30   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            74  51  71  45  75 /  40  20   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          72  53  71  45  75 /  40  20   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            75  57  73  50  75 /  50  20   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           73  55  73  48  74 /  60  20   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         73  56  75  49  73 /  70  20   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            76  55  76  48  76 /  60  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

13/91

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-191100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
500 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
TODAY WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF A PARIS TO
LAMPASAS LINE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SOUTHEAST OF A PARIS TO LAMPASAS
LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
631 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

TXZ174-181200-
MILAM TX-
631 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN MILAM COUNTY

AT 632 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF LEXINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ROCKDALE AND THORNDALE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3074 9728 3088 9690 3073 9662 3047 9715
      3047 9716
TIME...MOT...LOC 1132Z 204DEG 27KT 3051 9702

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