Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

.UPDATE...
HAVE CLEARED REMAINDER OF WW #158 FROM WESTERN ZONES. SOME STRONG
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...WITH
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
AVIATION FORECAST THE NEXT 24-36 HRS LARGELY HINGES ON TIMING OF
CONVECTION. CURRENT WAVE OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE MORE CONVECTION
FORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. CIGS WILL HOVER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH SPELLS OF IFR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST AOB
12 KTS.  SH/13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2009/
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS AND A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WILL NOT CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME UNTIL A BETTER IDEA OF CONVECTIVE MODE AND TRENDS CAN BE
AGREED UPON. LARGE CLUSTER OF RAIN AND ELEVATED STORMS IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. STRONGEST STORMS
ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS LINE...PROPAGATING
EAST AND SOUTHEAST. BEST INSTABILITY LIES ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG CAP. THIS CLUSTER OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES FOR ELEVATED STORMS PRODUCING HAIL. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO CONTINUE THIS MORNING.

MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT STORMS WILL REFIRE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE DRYLINE AS IT MOVES OUT OF WEST TEXAS. BY THIS
TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
JET STREAK WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE INTO WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
WILL DESTABILIZE AS CLOUDS BREAK UP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND UP TO
1500 J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP IS FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THAT SAME AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF 60 PLUS KNOTS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED TORNADOES. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN WILL LIKELY FORM
ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL AFFECT NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT.
AGAIN...THE SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING ACROSS THE REST OF
NORTH TEXAS SO A HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

AS ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE ON SATURDAY AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT MATERIALIZES...RAIN IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP PWATS AT 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH RICH
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. SOME SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH BETTER WITH UP TO 2000 J/KG CAPE
AND AROUND 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR. IN ADDITION...THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO
OVERWORKED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...BUT IF DESTABILIZATION CAN
OCCUR /CLOUDS CLEAR OUT/ ALONG THE DRYLINE...ANY STORM THAT CAN
FIRE ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE AS
WELL.

RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTROL NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN AND TEMPERATURES STEADILY
WARM...REACHING VALUES IN THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  58  79  54  73 /  80  60  40  20   5
WACO, TX              74  63  77  53  76 /  80  60  50  20   5
PARIS, TX             70  60  73  55  70 /  70  70  50  20  10
DENTON, TX            73  57  79  52  72 /  80  60  30  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          73  56  78  50  72 /  80  70  40  20  10
DALLAS, TX            73  59  78  54  73 /  80  70  40  20   5
TERRELL, TX           74  61  76  55  72 /  70  70  50  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         73  63  75  55  74 /  70  70  50  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  61  75  55  77 /  80  60  60  30   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

13/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
431 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-181100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
431 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20.

STORMS MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF I-35 AND SPREAD EAST.
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH
OF I-20 ON SATURDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.

13

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