Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
704 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

.AVIATION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AS OF 00Z
MONDAY....WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF AN ABILENE TO DECATUR LINE WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AND WILL
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
AROUND 06Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO SPREAD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. HAVE PLACED MVFR CEILINGS IN FOR THE 09Z THROUGH 15Z
PERIOD. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

58

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW ROTATING OVER TX PANHANDLE CONTINUING EAST. A
FEW SHRA/TSRA ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP JUST NW OF THE CWA...UNDER THE
COLD MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR. DRY PUNCH/CLEARING LINE WORKING SLOWLY
THROUGH W/SW COUNTIES. WIND SHIFT/WEAK FRONT MOVING IN WITH THE
CLEARING LINE. WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS BEHIND WIND SHIFT. TEMPS
BEHIND CLEARING HAVE REBOUNDED TO NEAR 70...WITH TEMPS IN THE
CLOUD COVER STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 50S.

UPPER LOW SHOULD LIFT INTO SE KS/W MO BY 12Z MONDAY. COLD MID-
LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL CREATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA NORTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR. A FEW
STORMS THIS EVENING MAY BE SEVERE WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT.

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY-WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM.
MILD TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND TUE-WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NEXT LARGE UPPER SYSTEM CLOSES OFF OVER 4 CORNERS/CENTRAL ROCKIES
REGION BY THURSDAY. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE DIFFERING LOCATIONS OF UPPER
LOW CENTER...BUT GENERALLY SHOW H5 SWLY WINDS INCREASING AND A DRYLINE
FORMING WEST OF THE CWA. AFTN/EVE TSRA MAY PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THU...AND INTO MORE OF THE CWA FRI-SAT. FORECAST
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND SMALLER-SCALE EVOLUTION OF
SYSTEM...WILL BROAD-BRUSH 20-30 POPS THURS THROUGH SUNDAY AND
REFINE AS EVENT APPROACHES.
..06..

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  50  67  49  77  55 /  20   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              50  72  48  77  55 /  10   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             49  61  44  71  49 /  30   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            50  66  46  76  51 /  30   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          47  64  46  72  49 /  30   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            52  66  50  77  56 /  20   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           49  65  47  75  52 /  20   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         49  68  48  74  53 /  10   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            51  72  51  78  55 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

58/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
340 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-131200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
340 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE EACH
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
628 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     HAIL             2 W RINGGOLD            33.82N  97.98W
04/12/2009  M1.25 INCH       MONTAGUE           TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            1 3/8 INCH HAIL ALONG HWY 82 AT CLAY/MONTAGUE LINE.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
658 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     HAIL             4 S NOCONA              33.73N  97.73W
04/12/2009  E1.50 INCH       MONTAGUE           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            FROM FIREMAN RELAYED BY HAMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
713 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     HAIL             4 WNW MONTAGUE          33.69N  97.79W
04/12/2009  E1.75 INCH       MONTAGUE           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FROM SPOTTERS...RELAYED BY BOWIE P.D.

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