Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
228 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW ROTATING OVER TX PANHANDLE CONTINUING EAST. A
FEW SHRA/TSRA ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP JUST NW OF THE CWA...UNDER THE
COLD MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR. DRY PUNCH/CLEARING LINE WORKING SLOWLY
THROUGH W/SW COUNTIES. WIND SHIFT/WEAK FRONT MOVING IN WITH THE
CLEARING LINE. WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS BEHIND WIND SHIFT. TEMPS
BEHIND CLEARING HAVE REBOUNDED TO NEAR 70...WITH TEMPS IN THE
CLOUD COVER STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 50S.

UPPER LOW SHOULD LIFT INTO SE KS/W MO BY 12Z MONDAY. COLD MID-
LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL CREATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA NORTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR. A FEW
STORMS THIS EVENING MAY BE SEVERE WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT.

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY-WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM.
MILD TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND TUE-WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NEXT LARGE UPPER SYSTEM CLOSES OFF OVER 4 CORNERS/CENTRAL ROCKIES
REGION BY THURSDAY. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE DIFFERING LOCATIONS OF UPPER
LOW CENTER...BUT GENERALLY SHOW H5 SWLY WINDS INCREASING AND A DRYLINE
FORMING WEST OF THE CWA. AFTN/EVE TSRA MAY PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THU...AND INTO MORE OF THE CWA FRI-SAT. FORECAST
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND SMALLER-SCALE EVOLUTION OF
SYSTEM...WILL BROAD-BRUSH 20-30 POPS THURS THROUGH SUNDAY AND
REFINE AS EVENT APPROACHES.
..06..

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  67  45  72  53 /  20   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              49  72  47  77  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             50  62  42  66  48 /  30  10   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            47  66  43  73  50 /  30   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  64  45  71  47 /  30   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            53  67  49  72  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           52  65  45  71  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         51  68  48  73  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            49  74  46  78  53 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

07/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
340 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-131200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
340 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE EACH
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
446 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     HAIL             SPRINGTOWN              32.97N  97.68W
04/12/2009  E1.00 INCH       PARKER             TX   PUBLIC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
619 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HAIL             1 W RINGGOLD            33.82N  97.96W
04/12/2009  E1.25 INCH       MONTAGUE           TX   STORM CHASER

            RELAYED VIA SPOTTER NETWORK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
621 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             RINGGOLD                33.82N  97.94W
04/12/2009  E1.75 INCH       MONTAGUE           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
628 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     HAIL             2 W RINGGOLD            33.82N  97.98W
04/12/2009  M1.25 INCH       MONTAGUE           TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            1 3/8 INCH HAIL ALONG HWY 82 AT CLAY/MONTAGUE LINE.