Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
901 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

.UPDATE...
PRE-FRONTAL DRYLINE STARTING TO PUSH TO A BOWIE...JACKBORO...MINERAL
WELLS LINE AND LATEST 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS CAP IS GONE. ONE CELL
OVER NRN MONTAGUE COUNTY AND OTHER DEVELOPING SW OF BRIDGEPORT APPEAR
MORE DISCRETE AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. EXPECT COLD FRONT
TO OVERTAKE NRN PORTION OF DRYLINE NORTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF SRN PERIPHERY OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. MAIN
THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...BUT DISCRETE CELLS EARLY ONE
WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR LOCALIZED ROTATION.

UPDATES SENT FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL
2 AM CDT...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A BOWIE...MINERAL WELLS...GLEN ROSE...
ENNIS...CANTON LINE. THIS INCLUDES THE D/FW METRO.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z UPDATE/

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ATTM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH CHANGES ON
THE WAY. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. UNTIL
THEN...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15KTS WILL CONTINUE. AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS BY 6Z. WILL TEMPO
SOME TSRA AT DFW/DAL FROM 6-8Z ALONG FRONT...ALTHOUGH BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING
BEHIND FRONT WITH WINDS 34015KT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

91/DUNN

&&

.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
LET RED FLAG WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE...AS WE HEAD TOWARD
NIGHTFALL AND TRIPLE-POINT OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT DROPS SWD TOWARD
WICHITA FALLS/BOWIE AREA THROUGH 10 PM. SQUALL-LINE HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SW/CENTRAL OK...NWD UP THROUGH
CENTRAL KS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALREADY EXISTS NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER...WITH FUTURE WATCHES INTO NORTH TX POSSIBLE JUST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MAIN THREAT WITH BETTER LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
ALOFT APPEARS TO OCCUR NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND WHERE BETTER
FORCING AND WIND SHEAR ALOFT WILL EXIST...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

MORE UPDATES LIKELY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2009/
WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING TO CONTINUE FOR
NOW EVEN THOUGH NUMBER OF SITES MEETING CRITERIA HAS BEEN
SCATTERED. SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH CONTINUE TO OCCUR AS BROKEN
CLOUD DECK SHIFTS EAST.

THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS
AND THE COLD FRONT IS ALREADY COMING INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...MERGING WITH THE NORTHERN END OF THE DRYLINE. COLD
FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE BEFORE IT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS
LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 10 PM. BEFORE MIDNIGHT...STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN A LINEAR NATURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 35 TONIGHT WITH HAIL AND WIND AS THE MAIN
THREATS.

AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS
AFFECTING THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH BEHIND TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT
WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE RED RIVER OR POSSIBLY OVER NORTH TEXAS
ON THURSDAY. DISCREPANCIES ALSO EXIST IN THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE LOW WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS MOVING THE SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE RED RIVER. DISCREPANCIES IN THE TRACKS OF THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW RESULT IN DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARD
TO PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH
20-30 POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE RED RIVER. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS MINIMAL AS THE ATMOSPHERE MAY NOT HAVE
TIME TO RECOVER AFTER TONIGHT/S SYSTEM. IN PARTICULAR...MOISTURE
RETURN LOOKS MEAGER DUE THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINING CUT OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH
VERY STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT.

ONE LAST SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH OF NORTH TEXAS. CONTINUE TO
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS WEEKEND/S SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SATURDAY/S FRONT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES OVERALL THIS WEEK WILL
SEESAW UP AND DOWN BETWEEN EACH FRONTAL SYSTEM.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  49  70  44  79  54 /  50   0   0   5  20
WACO, TX              51  72  48  80  58 /  30  10   0   5  20
PARIS, TX             47  65  40  73  52 /  70  10   0   5  20
DENTON, TX            45  69  43  82  53 /  50   0   0   5  20
MCKINNEY, TX          49  66  40  75  54 /  50   5   0   5  20
DALLAS, TX            49  69  46  78  54 /  50   5   0   5  20
TERRELL, TX           51  66  43  78  56 /  60  10   0   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         53  69  42  79  55 /  50  20   0   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            49  73  49  82  58 /  30  20   0   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

91/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
712 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-311200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
712 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE RED RIVER LATE THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL FORM A SQUALL
LINE DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TEMPLE
TO SULPHUR SPRINGS THROUGH NOON TUESDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY
OCCUR.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EACH
EVENT. VERY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 LATER TONIGHT.

05/

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