Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
958 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

.UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 11 PM CDT FOR THOSE AREAS FROM
SHERMAN...TO DECATUR...TO JACKSBORO AND POINTS NNW. SPC MAY PUT
ANOTHER WATCH OUT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FURTHER EAST...ALONG
THE RED RIVER AND INTO THE ARK-LA-TX REGION...AS BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO SITUATE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH SWLY LLJ 40-50 KTS UP THROUGH 5
KFT FEEDING INTO THE BOUNDARY AREA...ALONG WITH AN INITIAL IMPULSE
ROTATING THROUGH ROCKIES UPPER LOW/TROUGH THROUGH 12Z FRI/DAYBREAK
FRI MORNING.

HAVE UPDATED WX/POP/QPF GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS WITH THE NAM/RUC
BEING FOLLOWED OVER THE GFS. AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 MORE CAPPED AND STABLE
ALOFT...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING IN WAA REGIME MAY
BE HAD. FRONT/SYSTEM DRIVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY...WITH GREATEST
RAIN/SEVERE THREAT OCCURRING ACROSS THE NE HALF OF NORTH TX. VERY
DYNAMIC AND TIMING OF MULTIPLE FEATURES IS DIFFICULT. ANOTHER UPDATE
LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR EXPIRATION OR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF NEW
WEATHER WATCHES.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

DRYLINE JACKSBORO TO BROWNWOOD HAS ENDED ITS PUSH EAST AND HAS
BEGUN RETREATING. CAP PERSISTS...WITH LITTLE CU REMAINING.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED TO MONTAGUE COUNTY INVOF SFC LOW. TAF
SITES WILL REMAIN IN HUMID SECTOR...WHERE ST/BR SHOULD RETURN
AROUND 06Z (1 AM CDT). LIFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY WILL PREVAIL UNTIL
WINDS VEER AROUND MIDDAY.

NO CHANGE NEEDED TO TIMING OF WIND SHIFT (AND POTENTIAL NEAR-
BOUNDARY CONVECTION). INITIAL POSTFRONTAL WINDS WILL BE AROUND
270. THEREAFTER...PERFECT PROG WINDS ARE CLOSER TO 300...BUT MOS
GENERALLY 280-290. AGREE WITH CWSU ZFW THAT NW FLOW AT DFW IS
LIKELY...31L/R. WINDS MAY TEMPORARILY REACH 30KTS SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KTS. STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT
24-30HR EXTENSION OF TAFDFW.

25

&&

.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE LATE AFTERNOON WORDING IN ZONES AND IMPROVE SKY COVER
IN ACROSS SW HALF OF NORTH TX THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
HAVE BEEN INITIATING NEAR FINE-LINE TRIPLE POINT JUST E OF SFC LOW BETWEEN
BOWIE AND JACKSBORO...WHICH HAS BETTER SURFACE /LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
DUE TO BACKED ESE FLOW LOCALIZED ACROSS THAT AREA...WITH STRONG/MEAN
ENE FLOW...THOUGH SOME DEVIANT RIGHT MOTION TO STORMS IS POSSIBLE INTO
STRONG SLY INFLOW 20-30 KTS AT 850 MB. FRONT STILL ACROSS S-CENTRAL
OK...SO EXPECT AREAS NORTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS AT
LEAST THROUGH LATE EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SPC WANTS A WATCH
ISSUE BETWEEN I-40/I-20 CORRIDOR/RED RIVER VALLEY HERE SOON.

MAY NEED TO TWEAK POPS DOWN IN AN HOUR OR TWO SOUTH OF I-20...AS LARGE-
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SE TX/COASTAL COMPLEX MAY BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MOST OF THE NIGHT. STAY TUNED.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2009/
STRATUS HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED WEST OF
I-35. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO OVER 1500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE...WITH DIMINISHING INHIBITION AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPS NEAR 80 DEGREES ARE REACHED. IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO CUMULUS
HAS CONGEALED ALONG THE DRY LINE...WHICH STALLED FROM HENRIETTA
TO NEAR MASON. SOME CELLS DEVELOPED...BUT STRUGGLED TO ESTABLISH
THEMSELVES WITHIN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND HAVE SO FAR
DISSIPATED. THIS IS AN INDICATION OF A LACK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING
AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO YOUNG UPDRAFTS. WE EXPECT WITH A
COUPLE MORE HOURS OF HEATING...A COUPLE SEVERE SUPERCELLS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW...ONLY 20-30
PERCENT. PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL...BUT WIND
AND LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITH SUPERCELLS WEST OF I-35 WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE TO BECOME ELEVATED
ABOVE STOUT CAP TO SURVIVE IN ENVIRONMENT EAST OF I-35 EARLY THIS
EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST SLUG OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL ARRIVE BY
MID EVENING...AND PRIMARILY INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN ZONES. THIS IS
WHERE NAM/RUC DEVELOP QPF...AND THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE PLACED
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES FOR TONIGHT.

POWERFUL EARLY SPRING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF TOMORROW WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT
WILL RACE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG...WITH GUSTS TO 45 OR 50 MPH POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES WHERE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT SNOW
WITH WRAP AROUND PRECIP ALONG THE RED RIVER FRIDAY EVENING...BUT
LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ICE ACTIVATION LAYER MAY KEEP PRECIP ALL
LIQUID. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE RED RIVER
COUNTIES...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SIDED WITH COLDER PERFECT PROG GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AS
CLIMO INFLUENCED MAV/MET MOS PROBABLY DO NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES THIS COLD THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST...AND ISOLATED AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES. A
FREEZE OR FROST WOULD PUT ANY TENDER VEGETATION AT RISK.

OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BE NICE WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. A COUPLE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WILL BE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THE SECOND ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE AND WILL KEEP LOW POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST ZONES.
WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...WHICH INDICATES A
DRYLINE SET UP WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AREAWIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS OVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE NEXT WEEK.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  65  35  52  35 /  20  40  20   5   0
WACO, TX              59  70  37  59  34 /  10  20  10   5   0
PARIS, TX             57  68  35  48  33 /  50 100  50  10   0
DENTON, TX            54  63  33  50  33 /  30  50  30   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          58  67  35  50  32 /  30  60  30   5   0
DALLAS, TX            60  67  36  52  39 /  30  40  20   5   0
TERRELL, TX           60  69  35  53  34 /  30  60  20   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         59  71  36  57  34 /  20  40  10   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            59  71  38  62  34 /  10  10  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

25/05

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
833 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     HAIL             3 NW MUENSTER           33.68N  97.41W
03/26/2009  E2.00 INCH       COOKE              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
834 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     HAIL             ST. JO                  33.70N  97.52W
03/26/2009  E1.75 INCH       MONTAGUE           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            LOTS OF GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL. 4 FIRE VEHICLES HEAVILY
            DAMAGED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
838 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 PM     TORNADO          3 W MUENSTER            33.65N  97.43W
03/26/2009                   COOKE              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED BY COOKE COUNTY FD.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
905 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HAIL             MUENSTER                33.65N  97.38W
03/26/2009  E2.75 INCH       COOKE              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
958 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     HAIL             2 SSW POTTSBORO         33.75N  96.68W
03/26/2009  E2.75 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

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