Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1151 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2009

.AVIATION...
/6Z UPDATE/

LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE AREA AIRPORTS
BY AROUND 10-11Z. ALL OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUT WEST EARLIER HAS
WEAKENED...SO HAVE TONED DOWN THE TSTM POTENTIAL FOR ALL AREAS.
CIGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND A BIT BUT THINK MVFR BKN025 CIGS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AREA OF RAIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 35 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL ALSO
KEEP A TEMPO 27025G35KT IN FOR ALL SITES DURING THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIP. CIGS IMPROVE LATE MORNING AS PRECIP MOVES EAST WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER
THAN THE EARLY MORNING PRECIP AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY CROSSWINDS
ON LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS.

91/DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS THAT CAP REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL BUT HAS LIFTED
SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET DURING THE LAST 12 HRS. LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AIR BENEATH THE CAP...WITH VERY
LIGHT QPF VALUES SO FAR. THE HEAVIER RAIN IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW NEAR A PLAINVIEW TO OZONA
LINE. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE
CIN. NAM LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE HOURS SLOW WITH THE TIMING OF ITS
PRECIP. HAVE EXPANDED POPS FARTHER EAST...WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE
WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE METRO AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BY 6
AM...THE REMNANTS OF THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD ALREADY BE IN THE
METROPLEX. LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN THE WEST AS RAIN AND DRIER
AIR SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE.  SH/13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2009/
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
PLAINS TONIGHT. WINDS OVER THE REGION ARE ALREADY RESPONDING TO
RAPIDLY FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. GIVEN
THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
EXCEEDING 60 KT...BELIEVE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHER THAN MODEL
FORECASTS WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH 6 AM. VERY
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITHIN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
BELOW THE INVERSION WILL STREAM ACROSS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

A SQUALL LINE WILL ORGANIZE OVER WEST TEXAS BY 10 PM AND RAPIDLY
MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...CAP WILL
BE LIFTED ADIABATICALLY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING. ALTHOUGH CAP SHOULD ERODE...IT WILL COME AT
THE EXPENSE OF AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. AS SQUALL LINE MOVES INTO
INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT...WE EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY MIX
DOWN...BUT AGAIN LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL MITIGATE THIS POTENTIAL.
WEAKENING LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR
RIGHT AROUND 6 AM. THIS IS THE START/END OF THE VERIFICATION
PERIOD...SO POPS ARE SPLIT AND ARTIFICIALLY LOW DUE TO 1-2 HOUR
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
FROM THIS EVENT IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT. HIGHEST QPF
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST...RANGING FROM 3/4 TO 1 INCH...TAPERING
DOWN TO JUST 1/4 INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST.

RAIN WILL CLEAR THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY...AND
EXPECT SUNNY/WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. S/SW WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND RH WILL
BOTTOM OUT NEAR 20-25 PERCENT WEST OF I-35. THIS OCCURRING ON ANY
OTHER DAY THIS SEASON WOULD WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING...BUT GIVEN
THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT/WETTING RAINS OVERNIGHT WE
BELIEVE FIRE THREAT IS LOW.

THE NEXT...AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AND BRING A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TO
NORTH TEXAS. STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL CREATE ROBUST WIND FIELDS AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES.
SHEAR OF THIS MAGNITUDE IS COMMON WITH SYSTEMS IN THE COOL
SEASON...HOWEVER THEY USUALLY HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE THIS TIME. RICH
MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 DEGREES...WILL
CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES PROGGED OVER 1000 J/KG BY
SEVERAL MODELS AND SREF MEMBERS. SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN
PLACE FOR A TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT/TORNADIC EVENT...DEPENDS
ON HOW THE MESOSCALE PLAYS OUT...WHICH JUST CANT BE DEDUCED YET.

PACIFIC FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RATHER
NICE AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY...BUT IT
APPEARS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THEREFORE CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES OF RAIN
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AGAIN.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  56  74  52  72  51 /  60  80   0  40  60
WACO, TX              57  75  55  75  50 /  40  70   5  30  40
PARIS, TX             58  69  52  69  50 /  20  90   5  50  80
DENTON, TX            55  74  46  71  48 /  70  80   0  40  60
MCKINNEY, TX          58  73  49  71  51 /  50  90   0  40  80
DALLAS, TX            57  74  54  72  54 /  50  90   0  40  70
TERRELL, TX           58  72  55  72  54 /  30  90   5  40  80
CORSICANA, TX         58  72  58  74  53 /  30  70   5  40  70
TEMPLE, TX            57  76  56  75  50 /  40  50   5  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ091>093-100>104-
115>120-129>134-141>146-156>161-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1140 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-091200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1140 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO CORSICANA TO FRANKLIN.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS INTO THE
ARKLATEX REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

DUNN

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