Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
309 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

.UPDATE...
A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH OUT OF THE NORTH TEXAS
ZONES. THE STRONG STORM MOVING THROUGH WILLIAMSON COUNTY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR. WILL MOST
LIKELY HAVE TO CANCEL THE TORNADO WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR.

FOR NOW WE WILL LOWER/REMOVE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION AND KEEP HIGH POPS IN THE EAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE DRY LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD RETREAT THIS EVENING
AND WILL NOT BRING ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DRY LINE
SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN STORM FORMATION ON THURSDAY.

&&

...ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM FOR NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOUTHERN STREAM CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. SEVERAL STRONG SURFACE SYSTEMS WITH DYNAMIC SUPPORT
ALOFT WILL IMPACT NORTH TEXAS WITH BOUTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...A
TASTE OF WINTER.

CURRENT CONVECTION HAS RESULTED FOR A STRONG JET MAX AND SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND THERE IS A THREAT OF TORNADOES DOWN SOUTH
CLOSER TO STALLED FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION FEEDING THE STORMS AND KEEPING THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL GOING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE RED
THURSDAY WITH NORTH TEXAS IN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY.

INTENSE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY WITH COLD CORE
H5 LOW MOVING ALONG THE RED RIVER AND COLD SURFACE AIR SPREADING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
(MAYBE SLEET) MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ALONG THE RED INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING...THUS LITTLE OR NO SNOW/ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ITS A DIFFER STORY ACROSS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL (6
TO 15+ INCHES) ARE FORECAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY AND A
WIND ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONALLY COLD AND QUIET. WE CURRENTLY DO
NOT HAVE ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES FORECAST...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE
IN A LATER ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...AREAS NORTH OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO
SHERMAN LINE WILL DROP TO AROUND 34 DEGREES SATURDAY MORNING...AND
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR LOW/MID 30S SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS KANSAS AND PUSHING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE DRY
BUT RATHER WINDY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND TURNING COOLER AGAIN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

A MORE INTENSE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
BY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ANOTHER SURFACE SYSTEM HEADED FOR NORTH
TEXAS WITH MORE STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  76  56  60  37 /  60  50  30  40  30
WACO, TX              56  79  57  67  39 /  50  50  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             49  75  61  63  36 /  80  60  50  60  50
DENTON, TX            51  76  54  59  35 /  50  40  30  50  30
MCKINNEY, TX          51  74  54  60  37 /  60  50  40  40  40
DALLAS, TX            55  75  57  62  38 /  60  50  30  40  30
TERRELL, TX           56  75  58  65  38 /  70  50  40  40  30
CORSICANA, TX         56  78  59  68  39 /  70  60  30  40  20
TEMPLE, TX            58  76  58  70  40 /  50  50  10  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

05/75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
135 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-261200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
135 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
TEXAS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THOSE PARTS OF SOUTHERN NORTH TEXAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION AND A DRYLINE
MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
MAY OCCUR EAST OF THE DRYLINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE EAST OF NORTH TEXAS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT OVER
EASTERN NORTH TEXAS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

05/

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
136 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

TXZ129-130-141-251900-
EASTLAND TX-ERATH TX-COMANCHE TX-
136 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  COMANCHE COUNTY
  EASTERN EASTLAND COUNTY
  WESTERN ERATH COUNTY

AT 135 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EASTLAND...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COMANCHE...DE LEON...
DUBLIN...GORMAN...HUCKABAY AND MORGAN MILL.

PEA-SIZED HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3251 9808 3176 9847 3206 9888 3250 9856
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 274DEG 35KT 3225 9863

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
148 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

TXZ118-251915-
TARRANT TX-
148 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN TARRANT COUNTY

AT 148 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
WEATHERFORD...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT COURSE AND INTENSIFIES...A
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF TARRANT COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3300 9724 3256 9725 3256 9754 3290 9755
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 275DEG 24KT 3270 9771

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
205 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

TXZ130-141-251930-
ERATH TX-COMANCHE TX-
205 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN COMANCHE COUNTY
  SOUTHERN ERATH COUNTY

AT 205 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COMANCHE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GUSTINE.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN TEXAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 600 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3185 9863 3225 9795 3209 9787 3193 9818
      3191 9820 3185 9816 3171 9849 3173 9849
      3173 9854
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 241DEG 29KT 3181 9847

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
224 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

TXZ122-135-252000-
VAN ZANDT TX-HENDERSON TX-
224 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON COUNTY
  EASTERN VAN ZANDT COUNTY

AT 223 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF ATHENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH. A SECOND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EDOM...ALSO
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CHANDLER...EDOM...
GRAND SALINE AND VAN.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3230 9544 3230 9603 3273 9568 3272 9563
      3261 9558 3248 9558 3239 9547
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 218DEG 31KT 3232 9588

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
251 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

TXZ133-134-252015-
JOHNSON TX-ELLIS TX-
251 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY
  EAST CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTY

AT 251 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALVARADO...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GRANDVIEW...MAYPEARL...
MIDLOTHIAN...OAK LEAF...RED OAK...VENUS AND WAXAHACHIE.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN TEXAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 600 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3227 9708 3227 9710 3225 9717 3226 9718
      3253 9719 3254 9676 3234 9671
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 231DEG 34KT 3237 9710