Severe Thunderstorm Warning 404, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
242 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AIDED IN PART BY A SHORTWAVE TROF NOW
CURRENTLY ENTERING NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING THIS CLUSTER OF CONVECTION INTO OUR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
STAY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A BOWIE TO PLANO TO CANTON LINE.

GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...QUARTER SIZE
HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH TODAYS ACTIVITY.

CONVECTION SHOULD QUIET DOWN AFTER THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE RED
RIVER/NORTHEAST COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS
ON THURSDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
MIGRATING NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE...WILL CARRY 20 POPS FOR ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON A DAILY BASIS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WILL ALLOW HEAT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE
GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS /ESPECIALLY IN THE
EXTENDED/ DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN CONVECTIVE FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...
WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80 101  80 100  80 /  20  10  10   5   5
WACO, TX              77 102  78 102  80 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             75  97  74  98  76 /  30  20  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            75 100  78 100  79 /  20  20  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          75  99  77 100  78 /  20  20  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            82 101  80 100  82 /  20  10  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           76 100  76  99  76 /  20  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         76 100  76  98  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            75 102  76 100  75 /  10  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ103-104-118-119-147-
148-158>162-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
225 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-061200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
225 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE METROPLEX AND ALSO LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WACO TO PALESTINE FOR AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20 THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE RED
RIVER. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
METROPLEX AND ALSO LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WACO
TO PALESTINE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND OVER AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1027 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

TXZ095-106-051600-
LAMAR TX-DELTA TX-
1027 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  DELTA COUNTY
  SOUTHERN LAMAR COUNTY

AT 1026 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTH OF PARIS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COOPER AND COOPER LAKE PARK.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3335 9549 3335 9559 3332 9563 3332 9565
      3337 9577 3368 9557 3360 9537
TIME...MOT...LOC 1526Z 025DEG 18KT 3354 9553

CAVANAUGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
238 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

TXZ095-052000-
LAMAR TX-
238 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN LAMAR COUNTY

AT 235 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...14 MILES WEST OF HUGO OR 31 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PARIS...WAS MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.  THIS STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF LAMAR COUNTY THROUGH 330 PM.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3395 9557 3391 9554 3388 9545 3387 9534
      3390 9534 3390 9532 3388 9529 3369 9531
      3367 9585 3385 9585 3387 9581 3386 9578
      3391 9575 3390 9568 3395 9561
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 354DEG 21KT 3401 9574