Severe Thunderstorm Warning 402, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF INTEREST FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE
FIRST WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK...STALLED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS
WILL PULSE UP AND DOWN AND MAY COME CLOSE TO SEVERE LIMITS WITH
BRIEF DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY
HAZARD.

THE SECOND AREA OF INTEREST FOR STORMS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS WHEN AN MCS DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  95  75  99  77 /  30  50  20  10   5
WACO, TX              75  98  75 100  76 /  30  30  20  10   5
PARIS, TX             72  89  71  95  73 /  30  60  20  20   5
DENTON, TX            72  95  72  99  75 /  40  50  20  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          70  93  71  97  72 /  30  50  20  20   5
DALLAS, TX            77  95  78  99  78 /  30  50  20  20   5
TERRELL, TX           72  94  74  98  74 /  30  50  20  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  95  74  98  74 /  30  40  20  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  97  74  98  72 /  40  20  20  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

21/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
339 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-011200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
339 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD THROUGH THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FOCUSED TO
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.

SCHULTZ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
423 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

TXZ142-156>158-312200-
MILLS TX-CORYELL TX-LAMPASAS TX-BELL TX-
423 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN BELL COUNTY
  SOUTHWESTERN CORYELL COUNTY
  LAMPASAS COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN MILLS COUNTY

AT 418 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE COLORADO RIVER
NORTHEAST OF SAN SABA...TO KILLEEN AND HARKER HEIGHTS. THE LINE WAS
MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE COPPERAS COVE AND FORT
HOOD.

PEA-SIZED HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. A GUST OF 44 MPH WAS REPORTED AT SKYLARK FIELD
IN KILLEEN. IN THE PRECEDING OUTFLOW...HOOD ARMY AIR FIELD RECORDED
A GUST OF 46 MPH.

CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THE STORMS. THOSE
ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY IF LIGHTNING IS SEEN OR THUNDER IS HEARD.
STAY INSIDE UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3151 9861 3112 9744 3085 9758 3086 9760
      3095 9786 3104 9792 3103 9807 3122 9858
      3125 9858 3128 9863 3132 9860 3132 9865
      3136 9866 3134 9870 3136 9872
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 192DEG 12KT 3135 9865 3102 9762

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