Severe Thunderstorm Warning 271, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
322 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE LATEST SPC MESOANAYSIS SHOWS THE CAP HAS JUST ABOUT
LIFTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND SURFACE BASED CAPE REMAINS BETWEEN
2000 AND 3500 J/KG. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN
THE NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
HOWEVER...A DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 700 MB SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY
WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SHORT
WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST. THE
GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT BASED ON THE
FORECASTED INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

WARMER AIR AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY...LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY
WILL REMAIN HIGH AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL SURPASS THE
CENTURY MARK IN MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOOKING AHEAD...IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART
AND WARM/HUMID/RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  77  97  76 /  40  20  30  10  10
WACO, TX              74  97  77  99  77 /  30  20  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             71  91  73  95  74 /  50  30  40  10  20
DENTON, TX            70  95  73  98  75 /  50  30  30  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  94  74  98  74 /  40  30  40  10  20
DALLAS, TX            74  96  79  99  80 /  40  20  30  10  10
TERRELL, TX           73  95  76  98  76 /  40  20  40  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         75  94  76  97  76 /  30  20  30  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            75  96  76  98  75 /  30  10  20  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

58/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
333 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
333 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
GOLDTHWAITE...TO HILLSBORO...TO CANTON LINE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED NORTH OF A COMANCHE TO CANTON
LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
456 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

TXZ129-102230-
EASTLAND TX-
456 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTLAND COUNTY

AT 455 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF CISCO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CISCO...EASTLAND...GORMAN...
RANGER AND RISING STAR.

A GUST FRONT MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM WILL CAUSE
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE COUNTY THROUGH
530 PM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3252 9912 3251 9848 3231 9848 3209 9892
      3209 9912
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 310DEG 20KT 3250 9909

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
509 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     HAIL             GRAHAM                  33.10N  98.58W
06/10/2009  E0.88 INCH       YOUNG              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
514 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     HAIL             5 E GRAHAM              33.10N  98.49W
06/10/2009  E0.88 INCH       YOUNG              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW SPRINGTOWN         32.96N  97.69W
06/10/2009                   PARKER             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

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