Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WHICH WILL EFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
MORNING. THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD TRACK A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS
AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN THE MID LEVEL CAP SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY.
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS SINCE LOW
LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD BE MARGINAL. STORM CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT AND
KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD OVERNIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH MULTIPLE
IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST STORM
CHANCES WILL MOST LIKELY BE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...BUT OVERALL SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL SHOULD DAMPEN NORTH TEXAS SOIL THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE WIND THIS MORNING WILL BE RATHER GUSTY AS SOME MOMENTUM FROM A
50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MIXES DOWN. HOWEVER...THE STRONG WINDS WILL
BE LOCALIZED AND ONLY BRIEFLY STRONG AND GUSTY SO WILL NOT ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE THIS THROUGH
THE MORNING IN CASE THE STRONGER WINDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE RATHER SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  65  79  65  80 /  80  60  40  40  30
WACO, TX              81  69  83  68  82 /  60  40  30  20  20
PARIS, TX             76  64  75  64  76 /  80  70  50  50  50
DENTON, TX            77  65  77  67  80 /  80  60  40  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          76  65  78  65  79 /  80  70  40  40  40
DALLAS, TX            78  67  79  68  80 /  80  60  40  40  30
TERRELL, TX           79  67  79  67  80 /  70  60  40  30  40
CORSICANA, TX         79  67  80  67  80 /  60  50  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            80  68  82  68  81 /  60  30  30  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

91/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
432 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-281100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
432 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 AND REGION-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
409 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

TXZ158-270945-
BELL TX-
409 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  BELL COUNTY

AT 409 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF BELTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BELTON...FORT HOOD...HARKER
HEIGHTS...HOLLAND...KILLEEN...LITTLE RIVER-ACADEMY...MORGANS POINT
RESORT...NOLANVILLE...ROGERS...SALADO...TEMPLE AND TROY.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3088 9764 3092 9783 3104 9791 3107 9791
      3132 9742 3125 9734 3128 9728 3127 9726
      3100 9708 3090 9726 3077 9731 3076 9733
TIME...MOT...LOC 0909Z 219DEG 27KT 3099 9744

DUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
433 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

TXZ130-141-271000-
ERATH TX-COMANCHE TX-
433 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN COMANCHE COUNTY
  SOUTHERN ERATH COUNTY

AT 433 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DUBLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DUBLIN...GUSTINE AND
STEPHENVILLE.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HALF-INCH DIAMETER HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3203 9862 3241 9802 3225 9794 3219 9793
      3210 9786 3193 9818 3191 9820 3185 9816
      3184 9816 3172 9842
TIME...MOT...LOC 0933Z 239DEG 28KT 3203 9820

DUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
446 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

TXZ142-143-271015-
HAMILTON TX-MILLS TX-
446 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY
  MILLS COUNTY

AT 445 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES NORTH OF SAN SABA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GOLDTHWAITE AND MULLIN.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3171 9847 3169 9845 3176 9832 3156 9812
      3135 9865 3137 9872 3140 9871 3141 9874
      3139 9875 3151 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 0945Z 243DEG 29KT 3146 9865