Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1209 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM FOR THE
AIRPORT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BRIEFLY
LIFTING INTO LOW END VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRATUS WILL
RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 010-015 EXPECTED. WILL
TEMPO FOR IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY BUT THINK THAT
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL PREVENT IFR CEILINGS FROM BEING REALIZED.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AT 15-20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN
DECREASE TO AROUND 12 KTS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THE CEILINGS WILL START
TO LIFT AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND SOME STORMS
MAY AFFECT THE METROPLEX TERMINALS THROUGH SUNSET. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ANY STORMS TODAY COULD
SWITCH THE WINDS AT THE TERMINALS AND WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM
OUTFLOW WINDS. CHANCE FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE EAST OF
ALL AIRPORTS.

82/JLD

&&

.UPDATE...
AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
AND HAS PROMPTED A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH (#209) OVER THE
NE ZONES. IF STORMS ARE NOT CLEAR OF COOKE COUNTY BY 11 AM WE MAY
LOCALLY EXTEND THE FIRST WATCH (#208) THERE FOR AN HR OR SO. THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING INDICATES A VERY MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. DAMAGING
WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THESE CELLS.
SH/13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009/
PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH ANOTHER
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
CURRENTLY A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREA AND SPREAD EASTWARD AS
ASCENT AHEAD OF S/W OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL JET WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD OVER NORTH TEXAS BY LATE MORNING MAINTAINING
ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE MOIST UNCAPPED AIRMASS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH
WILL SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. IF COMPLEX
TRACKS FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...IT
IS LIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING IN AN OVERALL WEAKLY FORCED
ENVIRONMENT. THINKING NOW IS THAT CURRENT AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR TODAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE A THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THINK THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. PW VALUES
AROUND 1.8 INCHES COMBINED WITH A STEADY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL SUPPORT A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. WILL
NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM AS FAVORED AREA FOR RAIN TODAY
HAS MISSED OUT ON THE HEAVIER RAINS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT
THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS FORCING FROM S/W
DEPARTS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY APPEARS TO
BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED POPS WITH WEAK RIPPLES
PASSING BY IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW. COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND AND IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL STALL
OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE RED RIVER. WILL HAVE SOME 30/40 POPS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. WITH NUMEROUS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING BY
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT POPS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
WILL STAY IN CHECK WITH UPPER 70S AND 80S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  66  82  69  84 /  80  30  10  20  10
WACO, TX              77  68  81  67  84 /  40  20  10  20  10
PARIS, TX             75  64  80  66  81 / 100  40  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            75  67  81  67  83 /  90  40  10  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  65  80  68  82 /  90  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            78  66  81  70  84 /  80  30  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           77  67  81  68  84 /  80  40  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         78  68  81  68  84 /  50  30  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            80  69  81  67  85 /  40  20  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

82/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
946 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-301200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
946 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ALONG A COLD FRONT. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING AND
ADDITIONAL ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1140 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

TXZ092-291700-
COOKE TX-
1140 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN COOKE COUNTY

AT 1137 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GAINESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
CALLISBURG...GAINESVILLE...LINDSAY AND MUENSTER.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS.

THE HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3361 9696 3362 9748 3385 9746 3383 9739
      3389 9731 3388 9726 3391 9720 3387 9716
      3383 9720 3377 9719 3373 9715 3373 9710
      3380 9710 3382 9706 3385 9709 3385 9702
      3393 9699 3393 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 1637Z 279DEG 22KT 3373 9735

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1218 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

TXZ093-291745-
GRAYSON TX-
1218 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN GRAYSON COUNTY

AT 1218 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF WHITESBORO...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DENISON...KNOLLWOOD...
POTTSBORO...WHITESBORO AND EISENHOWER STATE PARK.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT COURSE...A SEVERE WEATHER
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3388 9658 3385 9661 3383 9656 3383 9651
      3378 9648 3379 9643 3369 9636 3361 9694
      3388 9694 3384 9671 3387 9669 3390 9658
TIME...MOT...LOC 1718Z 266DEG 31KT 3372 9686

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1221 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

TXZ102-291745-
WISE TX-
1221 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY

AT 1221 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DECATUR...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ALVORD AND DECATUR.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3343 9755 3343 9739 3343 9738 3320 9738
      3314 9770 3344 9771 3344 9755
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 236DEG 22KT 3320 9766

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>