Wind Advisory 5, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Buena Vista County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Ida County, IA, Lyon County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Cottonwood County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Rock County, MN, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Clay County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD

000 
WWUS73 KFSD 302045
NPWFSD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
345 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

.STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING
TO THE NORTH OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS NEBRASKA.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
NEZ013-014-SDZ062-066-067-070-071-310000-
/O.CON.KFSD.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-090331T0000Z/
LYON-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-OBRIEN-CLAY-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-
BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-
PIPESTONE-ROCK-DIXON-DAKOTA-MINNEHAHA-TURNER-LINCOLN-UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD...
LARCHWOOD...SIBLEY...SPIRIT LAKE...MILFORD...ARNOLDS PARK...
ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...HARTLEY...SANBORN...
SPENCER...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...SIOUX CITY...
IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK...MARSHALL...SLAYTON...
FULDA...WINDOM...MOUNTAIN LAKE...WORTHINGTON...JACKSON...
LAKEFIELD...PIPESTONE...LUVERNE...WAKEFIELD...PONCA...ALLEN...
SOUTH SIOUX CITY...SIOUX FALLS...PARKER...CENTERVILLE...MARION...
VIBORG...HURLEY...CHANCELLOR...CANTON...LENNOX...TEA...
HARRISBURG...VERMILLION...NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...
ELK POINT...ALCESTER...JEFFERSON
345 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 

STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL EARLY EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH.  WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

000 
WWUS73 KFSD 310001
NPWFSD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
701 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

.EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT A GUSTY 20 TO 35 MPH THIS EVENING.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
NEZ013-014-SDZ062-066-067-070-071-310115-
/O.EXP.KFSD.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-090331T0000Z/
LYON-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-OBRIEN-CLAY-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-
BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-
PIPESTONE-ROCK-DIXON-DAKOTA-MINNEHAHA-TURNER-LINCOLN-UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD...
LARCHWOOD...SIBLEY...SPIRIT LAKE...MILFORD...ARNOLDS PARK...
ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...HARTLEY...SANBORN...
SPENCER...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...SIOUX CITY...
IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK...MARSHALL...SLAYTON...
FULDA...WINDOM...MOUNTAIN LAKE...WORTHINGTON...JACKSON...
LAKEFIELD...PIPESTONE...LUVERNE...WAKEFIELD...PONCA...ALLEN...
SOUTH SIOUX CITY...SIOUX FALLS...PARKER...CENTERVILLE...MARION...
VIBORG...HURLEY...CHANCELLOR...CANTON...LENNOX...TEA...
HARRISBURG...VERMILLION...NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...
ELK POINT...ALCESTER...JEFFERSON
701 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1100 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...
STG UPR LOW DVLPG FM SRN WY TO NRN COLO NOT MOVG EWD VERY FAST...
WITH STG ESELY FLOW AHEAD OF IT OVER CWA. CLRG HAS MOVD NEWD OVER
SERN HLF CWA THIS MRNG AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY. SO HAVE UPPD
TEMPS AND HIGHS BY ABOUT 5 DEG IN A GOOD PART OF THE AREA TODAY...
AND ALSO UPPD WINDS TO 20 TO 35 MPH...BUT WINDS WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO WIND ADVY CRITERIA IN THE NERN HLF OF THE CWA WHERE THE
STG GRADIENT CONTINUES THIS AFTN. ALSO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON
THE PRECIP A LIT MORE THAN THE PREV FCST...AS SYSTEM HANGS BACK.

BIG QUESTION TNGT IS IF AND WHEN SYSTEM GOES QUASI CONVECTIVE WITH
DUMBELLING AND COOLING UPR LOW IN NEB FINALLY INTERACTING WITH BTR
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND INFLOW FM THE SE. SO MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME
COUNTIES TO CURRENT HEADLINE FURTHER SE IN CWA THRU TUE.

RSR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
BUSY FORECAST THIS MORNING...WITH MAIN CHALLENGES BEING TIMING OF
PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ALONG WITH STRENGTH OF WINDS WEST OF THE LOW TRACK TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LOW STILL SPINNING OVER WYOMING...WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE EXPANDING ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. TWO MAIN AREAS OF
PRECIP ONGOING AT THIS TIME. THE FIRST AN EAST-WEST BAND OF SNOW
ALONG THE MID LEVEL FRONT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BAND NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR FOR OUR AREA TODAY. SECOND AREA OF PRECIP
WHICH IS A GREATER CONCERN FOR US IS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW...OVER SOUTHWEST SD AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MODELS COMING
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN DIGGING THE UPPER LOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ITS CURRENT POSITION INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
BY THIS EVENIGN...THEN TRACKING EAST THROUGH NEBRASKA/FAR NORTHERN
KANSAS TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING SHARPLY NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE MN/IA
BORDER BY TUESDAY EVENING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BECOMES MORE
ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...THEN INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY
AS IT LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO NWRN IA TONIGHT AND SOUTHERN MN ON
TUESDAY.

INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW TODAY...
SLIDING EAST TO NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST TODAY...EXPECT PRECIP NOW OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE TO MOVE FIRST INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA...THEN
QUICKLY EXPAND EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS STRONG PUNCH OF
UPPER -DIV Q AND PV ANOMALY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SWITCH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL DRAW IN
COLDER AIR NECESSARY TO CHANGE ANY PRECIP TO SNOW IN OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES...BUT NOT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THUS HAVE
BACKED OFF START OF WARNING HEADLINES UNTIL 00Z FOR OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WEST OF KHON-LAKE ANDES LINE...WITH REMAINDER OF THE
PRE-EXISTING WARNING AREA DELAYED UNTIL 06Z. AREAS FARTHER EAST
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN BREAK OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT APPROACHES...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT SHOULD ASSIST CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT...AND 1-2 INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AS TROWAL DEVELOPS INTO THE AREA AND HELPS TO FOCUS HEAVIER BAND OF
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA. ALONG WITH THE HEAVY
SNOW...NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND INVERTED TROUGH.
MODELS INDICATING 35-40KTS AT 925MB ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE
CWA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...SPREADING EAST OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA BY 06Z...WITH 45-50KTS INDICATED HIGHER UP AT 850MB.
WEAK PRESSURE RISES/COLD ADVECTION SHOULD INHIBIT STRONGEST WINDS
MIXING DOWN FROM 850MB...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX SOME OF THE 925MB
WIND DOWN...AND HAVE UPGRADED EXISTING WARNING AREAS TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR TONIGHT/TUESDAY...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM YANKTON TO SALEM SD...TO LINCOLN COUNTY SD. BUFFER THIS AREA TO
THE EAST WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
WINDS THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY PORTION OF THIS AREA COULD ALSO
APPORACH BLIZZARD CRITERIA...BUT CONCERNED THAT SLOWER RAIN-SNOW
TRANSITION AND LIGHTER SNOWFALL RATES EAST OF THE TROWAL AXIS WILL
LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND BLIZZARD POTENTIAL. GREATER CONSISTENCY
AMONG THE MODELS LENDS CONFIDENCE TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAINING
UNDER 2 INCHES OVER MOST OF NORTHWEST IOWA...AND ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF
HIGHWAY 60 IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND OPTED TO CANCEL REMAINING
PORTION OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH THERE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM
SECTOR EAST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH TODAY...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S TO BE COMMON. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE FAR WEST...
WHERE CLIMB WILL BE LIMITED BY MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WET
BULB EFFECTS HOLDING READINGS DOWN AS PRECIP BEGINS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY MORNING...EXPECT MID 30S TO LINGER
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHWEST IA AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
MN...WHILE WESTERN AND FAR NORTHERN CWA FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30. DIURNAL RECOVERY WILL BE VERY LIMITED TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SNOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...AND EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN STEADY OR FALL A FEW DEGREES AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA.

MAIN TROUGH LIFTS OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING AS WEAK WAVE ROTATES INTO THE AREA AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW. ACCUMULATIONS BY THIS TIME WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
THOUGH...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY.

WITH FOCUS ON IMPENDING WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD...LIMITED CHANGES MADE
TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONT DRY LOW LEVELS OVER AND UPSTREAM S OF AREA MEANS CIGS NOT
LIKELY TO LOWER BLO VFR LEVELS UNTIL OR JUST BEFORE ORGANIZED PCPN
ARRIVES. UNTIL THEN SCT VERY LGT PCPN MAY REACH THE SFC WITH NOT
MUCH VSBY REDUCTION. WHEN STDY PCPN DVLPS...CONDS NWRN THIRD OF FCST
AREA WILL LWR TO IFR 30/21Z-31/03Z...WITH FRTHR LWRNG TO LIFR IN
SNOW AFT 31/03Z. CONDS WILL LWR LESS QUICKLY FRTHR SE SINCE RAIN OR
MIXED PCPN EXPECTED. LWRNG TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH EVENTUAL
AREAS OF IFR EXPECTED 31/00Z-09Z SERN TWO THIRDS OF FCST AREA. LIFR
CONDS IN SNOW WILL SPREAD EWD N OF FSD/MJQ AREA AFT 06Z. IN SHORT
CONDS WILL BE GNLY LWRG THRU 31/12Z WITH TIMING THE ONLY QSTN.

STG ESELY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS THRU THE AFTN MAINLY NE OF A LINE
FM MHE TO SUX...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO NLY FM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
AREA FM 03Z TO 15Z TUE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ072-
     080-097-098.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ071.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ013.

SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ062-
     066-067-070-071.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ040-
     054>056-059>061-064-065-068-069.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     SDZ038-039-050-052-053-057-058-063.

&&

 JH/WILLIAMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
559 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-311200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
559 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING...
ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS DUE TO RECENT SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA...WILL WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE BIG SIOUX AND JAMES RIVER BASINS. MINOR TO
MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE JAMES RIVER BASIN FROM
HURON TO SCOTLAND...AND ALONG THE BIG SIOUX RIVER BASIN AROUND
THE BRUCE AND BROOKINGS AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER...
A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH...AND VERY LOW
VISIBILITY DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW...ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM YANKTON...TO CANISTOTA SOUTH DAKOTA...TO
IVANHOE MINNESOTA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES ALONG HIGHWAY 81...TO AS MUCH AS 8 TO 10
INCHES WEST OF A LAKE ANDES TO DE SMET LINE.

FARTHER TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH FOR PRIMARILY RAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS IN FAR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PART OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA NORTHWEST OF
HIGHWAY 60...WILL SEE A CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 2 INCHES
THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PRODUCING
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM YANKTON TO BROOKINGS SOUTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
THE IVANHOE MINNESOTA AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IS LIKELY IN THESE AREAS ON TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED.
THE SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF.

ANY LINGERING RAIN FARTHER EAST WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM VERMILLION TO SIOUX
FALLS...TO MARSHALL MINNESOTA. ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NORTHWEST IOWA...INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
NEAR THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER
REPORTS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WOULD BE
GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

 JH