Severe Thunderstorm Warning 212, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
825 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION BEHAVING ABOUT AS EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
ABERDEEN INTO MINNESOTA HAVING A HARD TIME MAINTAINING UPDRAFT
STRENGTH WHILE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD HAVE ACCESS TO BETTER
INSTABILITY AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT THE CENTRAL SD THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY TURNING A
LITTLE MORE EASTWARD AND HEADING TOWARDS YANKTON. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED THIS EVENING AND
AFTER SUNSET WITH QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH THE
MAIN THREATS.

OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE DEW POINT AND TEMPERATURE
GRIDS THIS EVENING TO COMPENSATE FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES WITHIN CONVECTION IN SC SD. ALSO INCREASED POPS WEST OF
THE JAMES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. /08

&&

.AVIATION...
GENLY VFR THRU PD. SPOTTY TRW W OF JAMES RVR AND MOVE SEWD OVERNIGHT
INTO TUES MORN. CIGS AND VSBYS OCNLY MVFR IN TRW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
S/W DROPPING SEWD INTO NW SD ATTM AND SHUD PUSH SEWD ACRS CWA AS SFC
BNDRY SAGS SWWD INTO SRN CWA. LLM WL LIKELY POOL NEAR THIS BNDRY
ACRS SRN CWA THRU THE NIGHT. NOT SURE IF ANY CONVECTION WL GO THIS
EVE ALONG FNT ESPEC NRN CWA AS BETTER INSTABIL SETS UP LATER
TONIGHT S OF I90 ACRS SCNTRL SD INTO NW IA. SO FOR NOW WL KEEP ONLY
20% ACRS THE N WITH CHC POPS S OF I90 AND W OF I29 TONIGHT. SHUD SEE
A FEW TRW FIRE UP THIS EVE ACRS FAR WRN CWA AND THEN SPREAD SLOWLY
EWD ALONG AXIS OF INSTABIL AND H85 FNT LATER TONIGHT. WL KEEP THREAT
OF PRECIP OUT OF MOST OF NW IA FOR TONIGHT...XCP NR SUX LATER
TONIGHT. IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING ALONG MO RVR...IT SHUD TRACK
ESEWD TOWARDS SUX BY MORN.

WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW
OFF THE CA COAST WORKS INLAND. WILL ACTUALLY SEE MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER LIKE WEATHER RETURN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND LIKELY
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEAN TIME...COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ALONG WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ALONG THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY...EXTENDIN THROUGH THE
MISSIOURI VALLEY MUCH OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LARGELY
BE DRIVEN DIURNALLY...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE ROCKIES AND
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT...RIDING THE AXIS OF
INSTABILITY. STILL...TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY A BIT TRICKY
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS ANY SUBTLE IMPULSE COULD POP CONVECTION.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1021 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2009

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-041200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1021 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. ISOLATED
STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH NEAR AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA FROM
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY FROM
CHAMBERLAIN TO YANKTON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

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