Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
500 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...
DUE TO ONGOING AND ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL KEEP
DISCUSSION ON THE ABBREVIATED SIDE.  FOR TONIGHT...19Z OAX SOUNDING
INDICATED FAIRLY HEALTHY LOW LEVEL CAP REMAINING ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.  THIS HAS NOT PREVENTED ELEVATED STORMS FROM FIRING ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM YANKTON TO ESTHERVILLE.  MAIN
BOUNDARY SITUATED FURTHER TO THE WEST...FROM KHON TO NEAR TYNDALL.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING A LITTLE BEHIND THE MAIN
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MUCH DRIER AIR SITUATED BACK OFF TO THE NORTH AND
WEST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S. CONVERGENCE ALONG MAIN FRONT
EXTREMELY WEAK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE AND STRATUS GLUED TO THE MAIN
FRONT...THINK THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING WILL BE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AND NOT ALONG MAIN FRONT.  STILL CAN/T RULE OUT A STORM ALONG THE
MAIN BOUNDARY...AND HAVE LEFT SOME LINGERING POPS MAINLY IN THE
EVENING TO THE NORTH.  MAIN SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE
ELEVATED STORMS WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES EXTREMELY STEEP
RESULTING IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY. EXPECT STORMS TO MAINLY CONTAIN A
HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT. WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE LAST WEEK...WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCHES GOING.

LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO WORK SOUTH DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW...AND WITH BASICALLY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT...COULD SEE
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT. BEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA NEAR
STORM LAKE.

BRIEF BREAK TO ACTIVE PATTERN ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS DRY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

STRONG THETAE ADVECTION SUNDAY MORNING MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATE SHORT WAVE KNOCKING DOWN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY
INTO OVERNIGHT.

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK WHEN STRONG COLD FRONT WORKS
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  DRIER AIRMASS WORKS INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. /BT

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR NEZ013-014.

SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR SDZ067-069>071.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ040-055-056-061-
     062-065-066-068.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1153 AM CDT THU JUL 09 2009

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-101200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1153 AM CDT THU JUL 09 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST
IOWA...AND IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA MAINLY EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVERA. SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL TO GOLF
BALL SIZE...WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

FLOODING...
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...AND MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHICH RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN THE LAST FEW DAYS TO THIS MORNING. THIS THREAT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A BROOKINGS SOUTH DAKOTA TO SPRINGFIELD SOUTH
DAKOTA LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED STORMS ANYTIME
THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MORE MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS
AFTER
400 PM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WILLIAMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
852 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WORTHINGTON             43.63N 95.60W
07/09/2009                   NOBLES             MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FLOODED INTERSECTION OF 10TH STREET AND 8TH AVENUE

&&

KEWY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
853 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     HAIL             9 NW SPENCER            43.24N 95.28W
07/09/2009  E1.25 INCH       CLAY               IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL 4 MILES NE OF THE INTERSECTION OF
            U.S. HIGHWAY 18 AND STATE HIGHWAY M27.

&&

TRM

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