Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
315 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ALONG I29 ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT ARE MOVING INTO SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR...SUCH
THAT A GENERAL WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE. SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS IS MINIMAL. BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THOSE
THAT ARE CURRENTLY TIED TO THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL SD. IF STORMS
BECOME REMOVED FROM THE BNDRY...SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY...OTHERWISE 60 MPH WINDS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL ARE
LIKELY INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. SFC FRONT TO CHECK UP ACROSS SE SD THIS MORNING
AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON. PROVIDED STORMS DO NOT
BACK BUILD DOWN THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND STRATUS CLEARS
SOME IN THE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD POP NEAR THE SFC BNDRY
LATE IN THE DAY. MAIN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND E
OF A LINE FROM BROOKINGS TO YANKTON. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION POINTS TO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. ML CAPES OF AROUND 2500 J/KG
AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50KTS SUPPORTS ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AND IS THERE
IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BNDRY THAT TORNADOES
ARE A POSSIBILITY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING...MAINLY OVER FAR SE SD AND NW IA...WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE
SATURATED THE SOIL. THIS IS ALSO THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR HEAVY
RAINS THIS EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.5-2 INCHES. PLUS COULD
SEE CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE 850 THERMAL
GRADIENT LATE INTO THE EVENING...AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY BE
SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.

INCREASED POPS FOR LATE THU TONIGHT INTO FRI AS THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDLEVEL BNDRY AS
TROPICAL ENERGY RIDES OVER THE BNDRY. MAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM W
TO E FRI INTO FRI EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND
A COLD FRONT DRIVES S INTO SRN NE AND IA. DRY THROUGH THE

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT COVERAGE TO DECREASE AND MAINLY BE CONFINED TO SW MN
LATER THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL SD EARLY THIS MORNING TO
BECOME STATIONARY OVER ERN SD LATE THIS MORNING. MORE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE
INTO NW THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.

&&

97

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
420 AM CDT THU JUL 09 2009

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-101200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
420 AM CDT THU JUL 09 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
AFTER MORNING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE QUARTER
SIZED HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BROOKINGS TO
YANKTON. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...70 MPH WINDS...AND POSSIBLY
TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHWEST IOWA IN THE EVENING.

FLOODING...
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 3 PM CDT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

97

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
509 AM CDT THU JUL 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 AM     TSTM WND GST     MITCHELL                43.73N 98.03W
07/09/2009  E75 MPH          DAVISON            SD   ASOS

&&

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
512 AM CDT THU JUL 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 AM     HAIL             MOUNT VERNON            43.71N 98.26W
07/09/2009  E2.50 INCH       DAVISON            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
526 AM CDT THU JUL 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 AM     HAIL             MITCHELL                43.73N 98.03W
07/09/2009  E1.00 INCH       DAVISON            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

0515 AM     TSTM WND GST     MITCHELL                43.73N 98.03W
07/09/2009  E60 MPH          DAVISON            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
535 AM CDT THU JUL 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     HAIL             MITCHELL                43.73N 98.03W
07/09/2009  E1.75 INCH       DAVISON            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

0530 AM     TSTM WND GST     MITCHELL                43.73N 98.03W
07/09/2009  E70 MPH          DAVISON            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
548 AM CDT THU JUL 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 AM     HAIL             PARKSTON                43.39N 97.99W
07/09/2009  E1.00 INCH       HUTCHINSON         SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PS

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