Wind Advisory 24, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST SAT OCT 03 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE LOW...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. ON
SUNDAY...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED. WE WILL
BE TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY.
AS MENTIONED BELOW...WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NORTHEAST ARIZONA. WE WILL
CONFER W/ ADJACENT OFFICES AND HAVE ANY WIND PRODUCTS OUT BY 130 PM.

PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM... BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY AS A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DIPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. AS THIS MOVES FURTHER SOUTH
ON SUNDAY...EVEN WINDIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH FOR THE DAY SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. SOME INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM...FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FOR TUESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...SEASONABLY
COOL...UNSETTLED WEATHER...AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WITH THE FUTURE PROPAGATION OF THE LOW UNCERTAIN. FOR
NOW...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 12 KFT MSL DURING
THE DAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
14Z...WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OF 30-40 KTS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF HIGH TERRAIN FEATURES. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CLOUDS IS ALSO ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. LCL
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. AFTER 14Z SUN...STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OVER 50 KTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.  AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

PUBLIC............DL
AVIATION..........DJO

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
655 AM MST SAT OCT 3 2009

AZZ004>018-037>040-041400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
655 AM MST SAT OCT 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE PROBABLE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE STATE. THE WINDIEST LOCATIONS WILL BE FROM FLAGSTAFF AND THE
MOGOLLON RIM TO AREAS NORTHWARD TO THE UTAH BORDER WHERE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH MAY BE COMMON DURING THE DAYTIME.