Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KFGZ 301915
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1215 PM MST THU JUL 30 2009

AZC001-017-301945-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-090730T1945Z/
NAVAJO AZ-APACHE AZ-
1215 PM MST THU JUL 30 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM MST
FOR NORTHWESTERN APACHE AND NORTHEASTERN NAVAJO COUNTIES...

AT 1213 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR ROUGH ROCK...OR 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHINLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  12MILES NORTHWEST OF CHINLE AT 1245 PM MST

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD 
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY 
HEAVY RAIN...CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING OF PAVED AND UNPAVED RURAL 
ROADS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A 
STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3633 10962 3615 10989 3638 11009 3650 10993
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 319DEG 14KT 3634 10990

$$
TC

000 
WWUS55 KFGZ 301941
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1241 PM MST THU JUL 30 2009

AZC001-017-301947-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-090730T1945Z/
NAVAJO AZ-APACHE AZ-
1241 PM MST THU JUL 30 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN APACHE AND
NORTHEASTERN NAVAJO COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1245 PM MST...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED 
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AND IS CURRENTLY 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHINLE. 
HOWEVER THE STORM IS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOTS OF SMALL HAIL 
AND HEAVY RAIN. A SECOND STORM NEAR CHINLE IS GETTING STRONGER AND 
IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH AND 
STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT 
THE CHINLE AREA TROUGH AROUND 100 PM MST OR 200 PM MDT. 

LAT...LON 3633 10962 3615 10989 3638 11009 3650 10993
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 319DEG 14KT 3627 10982

$$
TC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST THU JUL 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH AND EAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND GREATER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A SHORT WAVE
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH. POCKET OF COOLER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WAS NOTED ON 12Z 500 MB PLOT AND MODEL ANALYSIS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. OUR 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PWAT...IN ADDITION TO COOLING
BETWEEN 500-700 MB...COMPARED TO OUR 00Z SOUNDING 12 HOURS AGO. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THESE FEATURES SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...FOCUSED MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF OUR CWA. A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH FORMED OFF A DECAYING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LATE LAST NIGHT...ARE ONGOING RIGHT NOW JUST NORTH OF I-40
EAST OF FLAGSTAFF TOWARD WIDE RUINS. GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY AND
EXPECTED ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL INCREASE POPS
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. DRIER AIR
IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...SO WILL DEPICT A SHARP CUTOFF
IN POP FIELD ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIM...WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE RIM EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY TODAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..330 AM MST...MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THE
ASSOCIATED FLOW PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING MOISTURE OR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL STILL EXIST MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF FLAGSTAFF.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. WE HAVE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT ARE KEEPING THEM A NOTCH BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKY CONDITIONS
WITH CLOUD BASES AT OR ABOVE 13 KFT MSL WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF A LINE
EXTENDING THROUGH KIGM-KFLG-E24...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. VARIABLE
WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS WILL ATTEND THE STRONGER STORMS. ELSEWHERE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AFT 04Z...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
END WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY 08Z.  AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.......................PETRO
AVIATION.....................MCCOLLUM

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
946 AM MST THU JUL 30 2009

AZZ004>018-037>040-310700-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
946 AM MST THU JUL 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND SMALL HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.