Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2009

Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

September 19, 2009Gila County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Sep 19, 2009, 2:30 PM MST for Gila County, Arizona. It was in force for 87 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 19, 2009, 2:30 PM MST (21:30 UTC)
Expired
Sep 19, 2009, 3:57 PM MST
In force
87 min
Issued by
NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

County Gila County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 93 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 183 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2009-09-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 96 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2009-09-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 10 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
96 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-54 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1467 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
12 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
10 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
39 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 19, 9:38 AM MST, 4 hours 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 19, 9:38 AM MST, 4 hours 52 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
938 AM MST SAT SEP 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. COOLER CONDITIONS UNDER BREEZY
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY IN APACHE COUNTY ARE ALREADY
UNDER WAY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. LOOK FOR THESE
STORMS TO BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE NEAR DAILY NORMS. CURRENT FORECAST ZONES/GRIDS
SEEM TO REPRESENT THIS SHORT-TERM SCENARIO WELL...WITH NO MAJOR
UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /355 AM MST/...A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC RIDGE WILL INDUCE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF WHERE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT STILL LINGER
FROM A WEAK UPPER LOW NOW OVER NEW MEXICO. BY SUNDAY...THE PACIFIC
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER ARIZONA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONGER S/WV MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE AND DOWN
THE FRONT RANGE WILL PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
INTO THE STATE. MOST MODELS KEEP THIS WAVE EAST OF ARIZONA AS IT
CUTS OFF...BUT THE GFS RETROGRADES THIS LOW INTO ARIZONA. THIS SEEMS
LIKE AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO FOR NOW. WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH DAILY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
PICTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
BTWN 18-22Z WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING 02-04Z. LCL MVFR PSBL IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.......................KD
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER........DB

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 19, 9:42 AM MST, 4 hours 48 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
942 AM MST SAT SEP 19 2009

AZZ004>018-037>040-200700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
942 AM MST SAT SEP 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS WILL BE FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM FLAGSTAFF TO WINDOW
ROCK...INCLUDING THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 19, 12:32 PM MST, 1 hour 58 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 19, 11:38 AM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZNavajo37 min
Sep 19, 12:38 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZGila, Navajo22 min
Sep 19, 2:24 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryFGZGila81 min
Sep 19, 3:26 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryFGZYavapai103 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2009Every flash flood warning in 2009

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.