Winter Storm Watch 7, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
230 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE PCPN COVERAGE/PHASE AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL TRACK BUT
SHOWING SOME THERMAL DIFFERENCES. WILL LEAN TOWARDS GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS AS NAM LOOKS A LITTLE TOO COLD.

SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN SD TO DRIFT EAST INTO S MN BY THIS EVENING.
ARC OF PCPN LIFTING N AND WILL SET UP DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS NW-FAR
N FA TODAY FOR BEST PCPN POTENTIAL. ELSEHWERE DRY SLOT TO LIFT
NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHERN FA...RED HEADWATERS...SO WILL BE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS A LITTLE THIS AREA. ANY AREAS OUTSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE
WILL SEE SPOTTY GENERALLY LIGHT PCPN BUT AM HESITANT AT THIS POINT
TO DROP POPS LOWER. COLUMN GENERALLY COOLS DURING DAY WITH BEST
COOLING OVER NW FA. NW HALF OF FA LIKELY TO SEE SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING DAY WITH SE HALF GENERALLY HOLDING CLOSE TO
STEADY. EVEN WITH COLDER NAM AREAS ADJACENT TO FAVORED SNOW AREA
DO NOT SHOW SUFFICIENT COOLING FOR PHASE CHANGE TIL AFTERNOON SO
WILL MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO PHASE FORECAST DELAYING CHANGE-OVER.
FEEL AT THIS POINT WINTER STORM AREA LOOKS ON TRACK AND AM NOT
SEEING SUFFICIENT WINDS TO CHANGE TO BLIZZARD.

LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NE INTO MN ARROWHEAD TONIGHT. ALL MODELS TO
SOME DEGREE GENERATING SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT QPF ON NORTHERN
QUADRANT OF LOW IN ZONE OF INVERTED TROUGH AND EXIT REGION OF UPPER
JET WRAPPING AROUND LOW. AS COLUMN CONTINUES TO COOL IN THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH AS COULD SEE SOME BANDING
SNOW WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITHIN TROWEL REGION ALONG CANADIAN
BORDER. REMAINDER OF FA LIKELY TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WITH CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WILL HOLD
MINIMUMS CLOSER TO WARMER MAV GUIDANCE.

LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NE INTO ONTARIO AND SHOULD ALLOW ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BE THE START OF A GENERALLY DRY BUT COLD PERIOD WHICH WILL CONTINUE
FOR REMAINDER OF WORK WEEK. HOPEFULLY DRIER AND COLDER PERIOD WILL
AID IN FLOOD FIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN MVFR/IFR RANGE ACROSS MOST OF FA TODAY.
EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER FAR S CENTRAL FA WHERE SOME VFR CIGS NOSING
IN VCNTY DRY SLOT. COLD AIR BEHIND SYSTEM WILL DEFINITELY AFFECT
KDVL BY MORNING WITH SNOW AND WIND CREATING BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

&&
.HYDROLOGY...
REFER TO HYDROLOGY PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS. THE RED RIVER VALLEY IS ALL
UNDER AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES POSSIBLE IN ALL
AREAS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014-
     015-024-026-054.

     AREAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL
     COUNTIES.

MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ004>009.

     AREAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL
     COUNTIES.
&&

VOELKER

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