Wind Chill Advisory 16, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
235 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ONCE AGAIN...THEN WHETHER ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL WITH
THE TWO WEAK IMPULSES THAN MOVE ACROSS THE FA TUE NIGHT AND WED
NIGHT. PREFER THE NAM TODAY AND WILL FOLLOW FOR THESE TWO WEAK
PCPN EVENTS.

TONIGHT...CLEARING LINE HAS MADE IT INTO EASTERN ND AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ARE MOVING
INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME FLURRIES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW REPORTED AT TIMES UNDER THIS BAND OF CLOUDS. NOT SURE
THEY WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST AND WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF
FLURRIES OUT FOR TONIGHT. THINK AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS WILL
MAKE IT THRU THE FA LATER...BUT IT SHOULD CLEAR OFF BY MORNING.
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS LOOKS TO STAY OVER WESTERN ND BY 12Z
TUE. TO ITS EAST THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO KEEP SFC
WINDS IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE ALL NIGHT. WITH MORNING LOWS
EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT. WILL START OFF WITH A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY UP TOWARD KBJI AND A WIND CHILL
WARNING FOR BARNES COUNTY ND UP TOWARD KROX...WHICH INCLUDES THE
KDVL REGION AND THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

TUE-THU...NOT SURE HOW MUCH WARMING WILL OCCUR ON TUE RIGHT UNDER
THE SFC RIDGE. WINDS LOOK TO STAY UNDER 10 MPH WITH SUNSHINE.
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FA WITH PINE TREES MAY BE ABLE TO WARM
MORE THAN THOSE WITH MORE SNOW COVER. HAVE VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE
IN TEMP FORECAST BEYOND TUE. FIRST IMPULSE COMES THRU TUE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...BUT LAST TO
THE EASTERN FA. TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
HUGE IN THE TEMP FORECAST. SHOULD SEE SOME SUN AGAIN ON WED BEFORE
THE SECOND IMPULSE ARRIVES WED NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN HOW FAST THIS
MOVES THRU WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON TEMPS. TRIED NOT TO DEVIATE
TOO FAR FROM CONTINUITY FOR NOW. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SNOW
POTENTIAL WITH EITHER OF THE TWO SYSTEMS...PROBABLY A DUSTING OR
SLIGHTLY MORE AND MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2.

.LONG TERM FRI-MON...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE W U.S. AND A SURFACE LOW
RETROGRADES IN E CANADA. HOWEVER...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WAVES
THROUGH THE FLOW WILL MAKE TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES DIFFICULT. AT THIS
TIME...THE FRI HAS THE BEST CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR A CHC
OF -SN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...KEPT THE
REST OF THE FORECAST DRY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR SKY AND VSBY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF -SN WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE YET BEFORE 00Z
FOR KTVF AND KBJI. WINDS TO BACK SLIGHTLY FROM NW TO W AND REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
     FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
     FOR MNZ002-003-006-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
     FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008.

&&

GODON/NG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1119 AM CST MON DEC 14 2009

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-151730-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
1119 AM CST MON DEC 14 2009

...PERIODIC DANGEROUS WIND CHILL THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. LOCATIONS
ACROSS A PORTION OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE WIND CHILL VALUES
OF 40 BELOW TO 50 BELOW ZERO. AREAS TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 25 BELOW TO 40 BELOW ZERO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

PERIODS OF DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.