Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 181849
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
149 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

MNC111-181930-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090618T1930Z/
OTTER TAIL MN-
149 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN OTTER TAIL COUNTY...

AT 148 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE STORM
WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF URBANK...OR 30 MILES EAST OF FERGUS
FALLS...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PARKERS PRAIRIE AND 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VINING BY 210 PM CDT...
  ALMORA BY 225 PM CDT...
  ALMORA...6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HENNING AND 9 MILES WEST OF
  WRIGHTSTOWN BY 230 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4610 9571 4643 9541 4626 9515 4610 9524
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 219DEG 11KT 4615 9548

$$

TG

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 181926
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
226 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

MNC111-181936-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090618T1930Z/
OTTER TAIL MN-
226 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN OTTER TAIL COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 230 PM CDT...

AT 226 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM LOCATED OVER ALMORA...OR 33 MILES EAST OF FERGUS
FALLS...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SEVERE. SO
THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 230 PM CDT. 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4610 9571 4643 9541 4626 9515 4610 9524
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 219DEG 11KT 4624 9537

$$

TG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1040 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...
KIND OF A WAIT AND SEE FORECAST FOR TODAY...REALLY NO STRONG
INDICATORS SETTING UP TO HIGHLIGHT ANY ONE AREA WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME WEAK SHOWERS
(POSSIBLY A CLAP OF THUNDER) FROM KJMS TO KBWP. THESE HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN WEAKENING AS THEY HAVE BEEN LIFTING TO THE NORTH.
THE THICKER CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
HAS KEPT THE FOG AROUND AND ALSO KEPT TEMPS FROM RISING AS FAST
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA...THERE ARE
HARDLY ANY CLOUDS. THEREFORE SD WILL GET A HEAD START ON WARMING
AND BETTER INSTABILITY. LOTS OF MOISTURE OUT THERE TO WORK WITH...
THIS WILL NOT BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN ANY
AREA. WILL MAINLY BE LOOKING FOR A GOOD SOURCE OF LIFT TO FOCUS
ON TODAY. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN FA...BUT EVEN MORE SO TO AREAS SOUTH OF THAT. NO REAL
LOW LEVEL JET MAINTAINS ITSELF EITHER DURING THE DAY. THE BEST
850MB THERMAL GRADIENT WILL LIE NEAR THE SFC WARM FRONT DOWN NEAR
KFSD/IOWA BY LATER IN THE DAY. BEST SUPPORT UP IN OUR FA LOOKS TO
BE THE 700MB/500MB SHORT WAVE THAT THE MODELS TRACK INTO THE AREA
BY 00Z FRI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE DISTURBANCE OVER
WESTERN SD THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THRU THE DAY. ALL
SAID...INHERITED FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
TWEAKS NEEDED. WILL ADJUST CLOUD TRENDS TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND ADD A DEGREE OR TWO TO TEMPS. OTHERWISE...WILL KEEP
THE HIGH CHANCE PCPN FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.
LIKE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UNSURE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS
POINT (AND FOR WHERE) AND WILL LEAVE IT OUT AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOG IS A LITTLE SLOW TO DISSIPATE IN AREAS THAT HAVE THICKER
CLOUDS THIS MORNING...WHICH IS BASICALLY RIGHT ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 94 IN ND/HIGHWAY 10 CORRIDOR IN MN (AFFECTING KFAR AND
KBJI THE MOST). HOWEVER...THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
TOO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL
TAF SITES TODAY AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. CERTAINTY NOT GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT TO VALIDATE THE USE
OF TEMPO GROUPS...SO WILL COVER PRECIPITATION THREAT IN 12 UTC TAF
ISSUANCE WITH CB QUALIFIER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009/

UPDATE...

DENSE FOG (1-3 SM) HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED AS CLOUD COVER THINS ALLOWING FOR MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL
COOLING. SOME SPOTS STILL REPORTING VISIBILITY TO 1/4 MILE...
INCLUDING GFK AND TVF. UPDATED GRIDS TO ADD AREAS OF FOG ALONG AND
EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 14 UTC. FOG STILL EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009/

DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM
IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARDS NAM SOLUTION FOR
FORECAST DETAILS GIVEN RECENT BETTER OVERALL PERFORMANCE.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A WEAK LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG A LINE FROM CANDO TO DEVILS LAKE TO TOLNA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THESE STORMS ARE CRAWLING TO THE
EAST...BUT THE NUMBER OF LIGHTNING STRIKES HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY
THE PAST HOUR. AM THINKING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO LIMP
EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS WAVE EXITS NORTH INTO CANADA
GIVEN CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP TRENDS.

ALSO EARLY THIS MORNING...AREAS WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER ARE SEEING
DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 OF A MILE AT GFK AND TVF.
WITH SUNRISE AROUND 530 AM...STRONG JUNE SOLAR SHOULD QUICKLY
BURN OFF FOG. AS SUCH...WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS BUT THERE COULD
STILL BE AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH 8 AM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

GFS/NAM BRING NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM WYOMING ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE LOW-LEVEL JET OR NEAR SURFACE
CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES...THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. 00 UTC NAM SHOWS 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
OF 0-1 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP. HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY A MEASLY 5-15 KTS WITH 300 HPA JET FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH PWATS AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND SLOW STORM
MOTION...AM THINKING PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...
ISOLATED STORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. WILL MENTION HEAVY
RAIN IN THE GRIDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT HOLD OFF ON SEVERE WORDING AS
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. IN GENERAL...EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST COINCIDENT WITH
UPPER LEVEL WAVE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

CHANCE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS ONE MORE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...EXPECT A
RETURN TO DRY SUNNY WEATHER SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY AS 500 HPA
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM +16 TO +18 C
SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS AT THE SURFACE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
NIGHTS WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE AGAIN AND
THE NEXT PARADE OF SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

GODON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
457 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-191000-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
457 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN MAY AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING ALONG THE
WILD RICE RIVER AT ABERCROMBIE...THE RED RIVER AT FARGO...AND THE
SOUTH BRANCH BUFFALO RIVER AT SABIN. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ROGERS/DK