Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 112201
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
501 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

MNC089-119-NDC035-099-112211-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090511T2215Z/
GRAND FORKS ND-MARSHALL MN-POLK MN-WALSH ND-
501 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN GRAND FORKS...
SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL...NORTHWESTERN POLK AND SOUTHEASTERN WALSH
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 500 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF POLAND...OR 18 MILES NORTHWEST
OF GRAND FORKS...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SEVERE. SO
THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

LAT...LON 4848 9722 4825 9659 4782 9721 4803 9766
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 224DEG 21KT 4815 9722

$$
SPEICHER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
427 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

.UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA. EXPANDED
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH TO COVER THE ENTIRE FA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS A REPORT
OR TWO OF HAIL LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD BUT MAIN QUESTION IS
THE TIMING OF PCPN AT THE TAF SITES. AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE THRU THE PERIOD...EXPECT RW TO DEVELOP INITIALLY THEN
TSTMS IN VCNTY. WINDS MAY GUST A BIT IN VCNTY OF TSTMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009/

SHORT TERM...
LOTS OF ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...BUT PCPN
AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT WILL BE THE MAIN ONES. MODELS WERE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT YESTERDAY BUT DIVERGED PRETTY GOOD AGAIN TODAY...
SO WILL TRY TO FOLLOW MORE OF AN HPC DERIVED ROUTE FOR THE FORECAST.

TONIGHT...PESKY SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE REALLY BLOSSOMED OVER THE LAST
HOUR MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. LATEST RUC SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET
REMAINS FOCUSED INTO THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR THRU THE EARLY
EVENING. LOTS OF UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
TOO. HARD TO NAIL DOWN ANY ONE AREA WITH BETTER PCPN CHANCES...
JUST SEEMS LIKE AIRMASS CONVECTION. WOULD THINK THAT MOST OF THIS
SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH BETTER PCPN CHANCES GETTING
GOING AGAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET CRANKS UP THERE AGAIN. LOW LEVEL JET THEN SHIFTS INTO
OUR FA BY 12Z TUE SO SHOULD SEE BETTER PCPN CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE WEAKER ACROSS
OUR FA...SO WILL NOT GO STRAIGHT THUNDER BUT MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FINALLY STAY UP RATHER THAN DROP TO
AROUND FREEZING...DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND WIND.

TUE-THU...STILL THINK THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE INTO THE EASTERN FA ON TUE...WITH A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE
WEST. HARD TO ELIMINATE PCPN CHANCES THOUGH WITH THE STRENGTHENING
UPPER JET PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z WED...BRINGING
MORE BROAD SCALE LIFT TO THE AREA. MODELS STILL AGREE ON MOVING A
COLD FRONT THRU THE FA TUE NIGHT ALONG WITH THE STRONG UPPER
SUPPORT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LARGE QPF BULLSEYES AS THESE
FEATURES MOVE THRU...BUT THERE HAS NOT BEEN GOOD CONSISTENCY ON
EXACTLY WHERE THESE WOULD OCCUR. AM ALSO WONDERING IF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT THE MODELS DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUE NIGHT WILL ROB SOME OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTH.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BEEN OVERESTIMATING THE MOISTURE RETURN LATELY
WITH OUR COOL WEATHER. EVEN TODAY THE RICHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BOTTLED UP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE GULF COAST. MODEL
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS HAVE BEEN TRENDING BACK A LITTLE. THINK
THAT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE NECESSARY TO GENERATE SUCH
HIGH QPF...AND DON/T SEE THAT YET. WILL HOPE THAT MODELS COME
AROUND A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TUE NIGHT SYSTEM. AFTER THAT THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF A DRY SLOT BEFORE THE NEXT BLAST ON WED/WED
NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWINGS OUT OF CANADA WITH SOME VERY
COLD AIR/STRONG WINDS/AND MORE PCPN. THIS COULD BRING SOME MORE
WHITE STUFF (SNOW) TO THE AREA WED NIGHT. THU LOOKS TO DRY OUT
AGAIN BUT STAY COOL.

LONG TERM FRI-MON...
GFS/ECMWF MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS RUN AND WILL GO WITH A
BLENDED SOLN ATTM. UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL AND ANTICIPATE
WAVE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH THE SFC RIDGE
OVER THE E COAST...SRLY FLOW WILL PULL GULF MOISTURE NWRD BUT IT IS
STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH. AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS...LOOKING
FOR BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SET UP OVER THE DAKS/MN AND SUFFICIENT LIFT
BECOMES AVAILABLE FOR RW/TSTMS ON FRIDAY. RAPID PROGRESSION OF
SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WAVE CROSSING THE REGION FOR LATE
SAT/EARLY SUN AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

TG/GODON/HOPKINS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
650 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-121200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
650 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

IN ADDITION...OVERLAND FLOODING PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SHEYENNE
AND THE RED RIVER BASINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS PLEASE PROVIDE RAINFALL REPORTS.

NG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
407 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

NDZ028-029-038-112215-
GRIGGS ND-STEELE ND-BARNES ND-
407 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BARNES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN STEELE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND GRIGGS
COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...

UNTIL 515 PM CDT

AT 406 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...
AND WINDS UP TO 55 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF SUTTON TO 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
DAZEY TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF HASTINGS...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20
MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
HANNAFORD AND BALD HILL DAM AT 420 PM CDT...VALLEY CITY AND JESSIE AT
430 PM CDT...COOPERSTOWN...LUVERNE AND SIBLEY AT 440 PM CDT...
PILLSBURY...ORISKA AND FINGAL AT 500 PM CDT...

INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN NORTH DAKOTA MILE MARKER 285 AND NORTH DAKOTA
MILE MARKER 305...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4766 9778 4673 9770 4670 9827 4757 9851
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 255DEG 17KT 4745 9839 4715 9813
          4676 9818

KAISER