Ice Storm Warning 1, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Benson County, ND, Cass County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Steele County, ND, Towner County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2009

.SHORT TERM... /TONIGHT THROUGH WED/
FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF ONSET OF
FREEZING RAIN FOR TONIGHT...AND PLACEMENT OF WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL
ON TUESDAY. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCE IN
PLACEMENT OF THIS SNOW...SO GENERALLY USING A FORECAST BLEND OF
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF FOR THIS FCST.

IN THE NEAR SHORT TERM...CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF FRZ RAIN TO
BEGIN. LOOKED AT RUC/GFS/NAM/ECMWF ISENTROPIC CHARTS...AND ALL
MODELS SHOWING SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO AREA BY 06Z. THE GFS
WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIP...AND CROSS SECTIONS
DID NOT SHOW COMPLETE SATURATION OF THE COLUMN UNTIL CLOSER TO
09Z. HOWEVER...SINCE IT THIS IS A FRZ RAIN EVENT CONTINUING THE
IDEA OF LIKELY POPS STARTING AROUND 06Z SINCE THIS IS OVERNIGHT
ANYWAY. THUS AN ICE STORM WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT STARTING AT
06Z FOR NORTH AND WEST OF FARGO...TO INCLUDE MN ZONES IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEY.

HPC QPFS SHOWING WELL OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST. THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES WILL BE A
BIT MORE TRICKY AS A WARM SURGE WILL BRING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
SOMETIME BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL
GET A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BEFORE P-TYPE TURNS OVER TO
RAIN...AND BETTING AGAINST IT SINCE THE HIGHER QPFS WILL BE NORTH.
THUS WENT WITH A FRZ RAIN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST.

IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST...TEMPS MAY WARM ENOUGH TOMORROW TO TURN
TO ALL RAIN IN THE LATE AFTN...BUT THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
IT WILL BE FRZ RAIN DO TO SFC TEMPS. GRANT...OTTERTAIL...AND
WADENA ARE THE BEST CANDIDATES TO SEE STRAIGHT RAIN...HOWEVER DO
EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND SFC TEMPS WILL
LIKELY DIP BACK BELOW ZERO...THUS HAVE KEPT ADV AREA OUT THROUGH
06Z TUE.

COLUMN COOLS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS/P-TYPE TOOLS SHOWING A TRANSITION
TO SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT TUESDAY...WITH WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL AND DEF
ZONE PRECIP LIKELY IMPACTING THE DVL LAKE REGION. THUS WILL START
A WINTER STORM ADVISORY AT 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THU FOR MDT TO
HEAVY SNOW IN THE WEST AND FRZ RAIN TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW
CENTRAL AND EAST. AS STATED EARLIER...THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVY SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION...AND
GENERALLY SHIFTED WEST OF THE FA...HOWEVER THE DVL LAKE REGION
WOULD BE A CANDIDATE FOR A WINTER STORM WARNING TO IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOW THE ICE STORM WARNING. WILL COVER WITH ADVISORY FOR NOW
UNTIL WE HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND.

.LONG TERM... /THU THROUGH MON/
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN OF STORMINESS FOR THE LATE NEXT WEEK AND THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THE ACTIVE AND STRONGER 500MB FLOW REMAINS SOUTH OF
THE REGION SO WILL THE STORM TRACK WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN US. AS FOR THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. THE ONLY
UNCERTAINTY IS ON SATURDAY WITH 500MB TROUGHINESS LINGERING WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW COMING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF FREEZING
RAIN EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO DVL AROUND 06Z AND INTO THE  VALLEY
AROUND 9Z. CIGS WILL FALL FAST AS THICKENING CLOUD SHIELD MOVES N
WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH FZRA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
     052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ049-052-053.

     ICE STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-
     040.

     ICE STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MNZ001>004-007.

&&

SPEICHER/JK

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