Areal Flood Warning 69, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
525 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY RIDE TO 10 AM AS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. NOT ALL STATIONS REPORTING DENSE FOG CRITERIA BUT MANY
AT LEAST CLOSE.

SATELLITE SHOWING MOISTURE MOVING N FROM GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER
THE SW CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
MUCAPE INCREASES IN THE 400-1000 RANGE. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY OR SO
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP WITH IT. MOIST UPPER FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS AIDING THE LIFT POTENTIAL.
SPC HAS A 5 PERCENT RISK AREA OVER CENTRAL GA FOR TUESDAY.
PRECIP ENDS LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. SKIES CLEARING FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAV/MET HIGH TEMPERATURES DIFFERING TODAY BY 7 TO 12 DEGREES. WILL
FAVOR A BLEND OR WARMER AS THE MET LOOKS TOO COLD. MAV/MET CLOSER ON
TUESDAY AND WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO PRECIP
POTENTIAL.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER THAT CONFIDENCE GOES TO
ZERO AS THE GFS AND EUROPEAN GREATLY DIFFER. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS
MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING IN SOME FASHION INTO SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS MOSTLY
DRY EXCEPT FOR SMALL POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY THAT
COULD CAUSE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF N GA. AM STICKING WITH
THE GFS FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS ZERO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FORECAST RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS(TODAY/TONIGHT)IN THE 1/4 TO
1 INCH RANGE AND TARGETING CENTRAL GA. RAINFALL CONTINUES TO TARGET
CENTRAL GA ON TUESDAY WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH RANGE
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
.LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. DENSE FOG THIS MORNING GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO AROUND 3 SM BY
LATE MORNING. RAIN DEVELOPING BY 18Z WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
18Z. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO
10 MPH AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  51  62  38  57 /  40  80  50   5   5
ATLANTA         58  54  60  37  55 /  50  80  60   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     61  46  52  31  51 /  20  70  30   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    59  51  58  34  54 /  40  70  30   5   5
COLUMBUS        68  60  65  44  60 /  70  90  80  20   5
GAINESVILLE     58  51  57  36  56 /  30  70  30   5   5
MACON           65  59  67  43  61 /  60  90  80  20   5
ROME            60  50  57  34  53 /  30  70  30   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  58  53  61  35  57 /  60  80  60  10   5
VIDALIA         69  62  72  50  60 /  50  70  80  50   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALL
N AND CENTRAL GA.

&&

BDL
41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1253 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-151200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1253 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING...THEN PUSHES INTO THE STATE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HAZARD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ROME TO ATHENS LINE.
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS.

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG THE GULF
COAST...PROVIDING SOME LIFT AND INSTABILITY. STABILITY PARAMETERS
WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ON
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
307 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009

GAZ090-091-102-103-142100-
307 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING
IN WEBSTER...STEWART...CHATTAHOOCHEE AND MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 400
PM EST...

AT 304 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS STEWART...CHATTAHOOCHEE AND
WESTERN MARION COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES HAS
ALREADY FALLEN SINCE 2 PM. ANOTHER AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH 400 PM EST.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
WEBSTER...STEWART...CHATTAHOOCHEE AND MARION COUNTIES THROUGH 4OO
PM...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND OMAHA...PROVIDENCE CANYON STATE
PARK...FLORENCE MARINA STATE PARK...LUMPKIN...WESTVILLE...FORT
BENNING...RICHLAND...CUSSETA AND SEMINOLE. DRIVERS SHOULD USE
CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. FLOODING OF
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AS WELL AS POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO
EXPECTED. IF YOU SEE WATER OVER THE ROAD...TURN AROUND AND DONT
DROWN.

IF YOU SEE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
612 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009

GAZ104-105-150000-
612 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS IN
EASTERN SUMTER AND DOOLY COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EST...

AT 611 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER METHVINS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS SUMTER AND
DOOLY COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EST. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE
STORM INCLUDE LAMAR...METHVINS...FLINT RIVER WMA...DRAYTON...LILLY...
RICHWOOD AND VIENNA.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED FOR WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...HAIL
LESS THAN THE SIZE OF PENNIES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
615 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AMERICUS                32.07N 84.23W
12/14/2009                   SUMTER             GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE ON OGLETHORPE STREET WITH PEOPLE
            TRAPPED INSIDE. SEVERAL REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS.

&&

TDP