Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
659 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
WILL DIMINISH AFTER DARK. ACTIVITY WILL LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS..
OTHERWISE VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2009/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITHIN A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST...BUT COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED STORM HANG ON UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY POISED ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL MAKE A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN PEAK NEAR THE CENTURY MARK DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. RAIN
CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ARE
MENTIONABLE...BUT STILL DISAPPOINTING. RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST
INTO FRIDAY AND COULD BE ENHANCED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY. NONETHELESS...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES SLIGHT TO LOW-END CHANCE. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY MODERATED AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

MID AND LONG-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A TROPICAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEXT WEEK. IF THIS PLAYS
OUT...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
OPTIMISTICALLY THIS WOULD BRING A FEW DAYS OF DECENT CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINS TO THE REGION. AS THIS WOULD BE MONDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY HAVE GONE LOW ON POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.
NONETHELESS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75 100  74  96  70 /  30  20  20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71 100  70  97  67 /  20  20  20  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     69 100  70  97  68 /  20  10  20  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  97  71  94  68 /  30  30  20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74 101  75  97  73 /  -   10  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74 100  73  96  68 /  30  30  20  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             69 101  71  95  69 /  -   -   20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  99  71  95  68 /  20  10  20  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  98  71  96  70 /  30  20  20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74 100  74  96  73 /  10  10  20  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73 100  73  96  70 /  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

13/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
429 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

TXZ171>173-183>193-202>208-217>224-228-272130-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-
BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-
WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-DIMMIT-
429 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TXZ194-209-225-272130-
LEE-FAYETTE-LAVACA-
429 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS LEE...FAYETTE AND LAVACA COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
450 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

TXZ209-223-225-262245-
FAYETTE-GONZALES-LAVACA-
450 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING FAYETTE...GONZALES AND LAVACA
COUNTIES...

AT 449 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR WEIMAR...OR 6 MILES EAST OF SCHULENBURG...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10
MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN GONZALES...NORTHWESTERN LAVACA AND SOUTHERN
FAYETTE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...SCHULENBURG...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
557 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

TXZ225-262330-
LAVACA-
557 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING LAVACA COUNTY...

AT 554 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
5 MILES EAST OF SHINER...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN WESTERN LAVACA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...SHINER...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM AND COULD
RESULT IN MINOR TREE AND ROOF DAMAGE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
603 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

TXZ173-190>192-262345-
BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-
603 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING BLANCO...HAYS...TRAVIS AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...

AT 554 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GEORGETOWN TO THE HIGHLAND LAKES AREA TO
NEAR SPICEWOOD.  MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN
OUTFLOWS OF  40 TO 50 MPH AS IT PUSHES ACROSS TRAVIS AND NORTHERN HAYS
COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT 30 TO 45 MINUTES.

THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...LAGO VISTA...DRIFTWOOD...LAKEWAY...BEE
CAVE AND MANSFIELD DAM...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

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