Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
645 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST JUST NW OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. THE STORM MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5 MPH
SLOWER THAN LAST NIGHT AND FORMATIONS SHOULD BE FARTHER WEST THUS
NO DIRECT IMPACT IS EXPECTED FOR THE METRO CITY TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. WILL MENTION SOME CB CLOUDS FOR A FEW HOURS AT AUS AND
DRT AND EXPECT THE STORMS TO DISSIPATE A BIT FASTER AFTER DARK
THAN THOSE FROM LAST NIGHT DUE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER JET. A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY
AGAIN ADJUST THE MVFR STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH
THE METRO TERMINALS LOSING THE CIGS AGAIN AT AROUND 16Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE BURRO MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO AND ARE
BEGINNING TO FIRE ON THE DRYLINE OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS. CAPES IN
THE 4K TO 6K J/KG SUGGEST STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. STORM
MOTION VECTORS MAY TAKE A FEW OF THESE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH MENTION OF SEVERE THERE.

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WEATHER FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND THEN DRIFT A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS SUDDENLY SHOWS A
DRIFT WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WILL
DISREGARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A
SEASONABLY MOIST SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER, WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CAP THE AIRMASS AND HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF
THE FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION BEING FAR WESTERN AREAS THIS WEEKEND
FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS COMING OFF THE DRYLINE OR
THE BURRO MOUNTAINS. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE EASTERLY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE AND A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP WITH THE SEABREEZE POSSIBLY BECOMING AN INFLUENCE. WILL
WAIT FOR MORE CONSISTENT MODEL TRENDS BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES.
HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MAV/MEX HIGHS IN A FEW SPOTS BASED
ON RECENT BIASES WHILE MAV/MEX LOWS SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77 100  76  99  76 /  10  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77  98  75  98  75 /  10  -   -    0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  98  74  99  74 /  -   -   -    0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  96  75  97  74 /  20  -   -    0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80 104  78 101  77 /  10  -   10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  98  75  97  75 /  20  -   -    0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  75  96  74 /  -   -   -    0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  98  75  98  75 /  -   -   -    0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  97  74  96  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  98  76  98  76 /  -   -   -    0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  99  75  97  76 /  -   -   -    0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

11/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
141 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-131845-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
141 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THERE IS AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. A
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DESPITE A CAPPED ATMOSPHERIC INVERSION IN
PLACE MAY PROMOTE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
IF STORMS DEVELOP..SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED QUICKLY WITH ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS FAVORING RAPID SEVERE EVOLUTION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
555 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SAN MARCOS              29.88N  97.93W
06/11/2009                   HAYS               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SAN MARCOS POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTED POWER LINE DOWN
            IN THE CITY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00687

PAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
654 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

TXZ171-172-130100-
BURNET-LLANO-
654 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SAN SABA COUNTY WILL AFFECT LLANO AND
WESTERN BURNET COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS...

AT 646 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
15 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHEROKEE...OR 30 MILES EAST OF BRADY...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR THE
NORTHERN COUNTY BORDERS OF LLANO AND WESTERN BURNET COUNTIES BY
AROUND 730 PM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN LLANO AND NORTHWESTERN BURNET COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE COMMUNITIES OF VALLEY SPRING AND LLANO...AND THE LAKE BUCHANAN
AREA...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND BRIEF TORNADOES.