River Flood Warning 24, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
736 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2009

.UPDATE...
CHANGES TO FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA INCLUDED A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA WHICH WAS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HAVE
ALLOWED THE WATCH TO EXPIRE OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WHILE
EXTENDING IT FOR GONZALES...DEWITT...AND LAVACA COUNTIES UNTIL 10
PM. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THESE COUNTIES AND WHILE THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE ONLY MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS...THESE COUNTIES ARE SATURATED
FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL RUNOFF
QUICKLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT TO LIFR ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR BY AROUND 09Z AND IFR AT KDRT NEAR 10Z. CONDITIONS WILL
BE SLOW TO IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BY 18-19Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES WERE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2009/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FREDERICKSBURG EASTWARD TO LA GRANGE. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE RADAR LOOP ALSO DEPICTS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD RESULTING IN MERGING CELLS.
THUS THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL OF THIS WEEK. SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF MOISTURE AND MINOR
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN DAY TO DAY
CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND BECOMES
STATIONARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR CWFA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK WILL BE
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ACTUALLY MOVE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...REACHING THE GULF
COAST FRIDAY EVENING. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE
FROPA WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND MILD UPCOMING WEEKEND.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ATTM...SO THE FCST IS
BASE ON THE GFS. NAM TEMPS AND POPS ARE THE OUTLIER THIS TIME
AROUND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  84  76  91  75 /  40  30  20  40  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  84  74  91  74 /  40  30  20  40  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     69  86  74  92  74 /  40  30  20  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            65  80  74  89  71 /  40  30  20  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  89  76  91  76 /  20  20  20  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  82  74  89  72 /  40  30  20  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  88  75  92  75 /  30  20  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  85  74  91  74 /  40  30  20  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   68  86  75  91  75 /  40  30  20  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  86  77  91  76 /  40  30  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  88  76  92  76 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...GONZALES...LAVACA.

&&

01/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
717 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2009

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-060030-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
717 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM CDT FOR
LAVACA...GONZALES AND DE WITT COUNTIES.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
420 PM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     FLOOD            4 SSW JOLLYVILLE        30.40N  97.78W
10/04/2009                   TRAVIS             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THERE IS NO FLOODING AT BULL CREEK ON OLD SPICE RD AT
            CROSSING NUMBER 7.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900157

AKF

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>