Flash Flood Watch 7, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1232 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS AREA GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
HILL COUNTRY REACHING THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z WITH IFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS. OVERRUNNING IFR-MVFR CEILINGS WITH
RAIN WILL PERSIST AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009/

UPDATE...AT 11 AM...COLD FRONT NEAR A PARIS..SAN ANGELO..FORT STOCKTON
LINE PUSHING SOUTHWARD HAS SLOWED DOWN TO 15 TO 20 MPH AND WILL
CONTINUE THAT SPEED OR SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS UPPER
MIXING AND RESISTANCE. THE FRONT WILL MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO OUR
NORTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. AS
THE FRONT STALLS..IT WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH NOON TOMORROW. THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY THAT WILL INCLUDE ALL OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CURRENT UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAVY RAIN
MENTION FOR THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS IN BR THIS MORNING AS
VERY WARM MOIST GULF AIR HAS PUSHED INTO S TX. AN INCREASING SLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HIGH DEW POINTS THIS MORNING BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...CAUSED THE QUICK FORMATION OF THE STRATUS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
DID NOT ALLOW FOR ANY DENSE FOG FORMATION. A FEW LIGHT STREAMER
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE GULF MAINLY EAST OF I35 THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE THE STRATUS DECK WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND BREAK OR SCATTER
OUT TO VFR MOST AREAS BY 17Z. SCT CU AT 35-45 HND FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TX WILL MOVE TO
THE NRN HILL COUNTRY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE TO NEAR A KDRT-25N KSAT-25E KAUS LINE BY 03Z. SCT-NMRS
SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT...SOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWN-BURST WINDS. SELY SFC WINDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...SHIFTING TO NELY 5 TO 15 KNOTS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009/

DISCUSSION...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY AS MOIST SOUTHEAST
SFC FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE HILL COUNTRY BY MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. SPC HAS
CONTINUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
ROCKSPRINGS TO SAN ANTONIO TO LA GRANGE WITH CONCERNS OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

THE WEAKENED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
INVITING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO
ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WILL REMEDY THE UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PEAK ON
FRIDAY AS THE FROPA PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. COULD SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT REACHES THE COAST.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN MID-OCTOBER NORMALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  81  75  90  74 /  50  30  20  20  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  82  74  91  75 /  50  30  20  20  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  86  74  91  73 /  50  20  20  20  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  79  73  84  70 /  60  20  20  20  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  91  75  93  71 /  40  10  20  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        67  79  74  86  70 /  60  30  20  20  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  85  77  90  75 /  40  10  20  10  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  83  74  91  74 /  50  20  20  20  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  84  76  91  77 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  85  77  90  75 /  50  20  20  20  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  87  76  92  76 /  40  20  10  10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...
BURNET...COMAL...EDWARDS...GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON.

&&

02/06

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