Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
356 AM MST MON DEC 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7000 FEET...WHILE THE LOWLANDS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS. STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH PASSES AND ALONG EAST
SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE PERIOD. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS AND SURFACE WINDS WILL APPROACH
BREEZY CATEGORIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE STATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL BEGIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 TO 7500 FEET IN THAT AREA. A WINTER STORM
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE
SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL SEE LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW THAT
WILL START IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE LOWLAND DESERTS WILL
HAVE MAINLY A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE AIR MASS BEING TOO
WARM FOR SNOW.

STRONG WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR AREA WIDE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 50 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS FOR PART OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND MAY BE UPGRADED TO WIND WARNING LATER
TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PASSES AND ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY MAY BE EVEN
HIGHER THAN THE PROJECTED 40 TO 50 MPH.

SHOWERS WILL END AND WINDS DIMINISH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AS
THE WEST FLOW KEEPS COLDER AIR MASSES AWAY FROM THE REGION. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FLOW WILL DEVELOP VARIABLE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WEAK
EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 07/12Z-08/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS TODAY WITH CIGS ABOVE 15 KFT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND WILL WARNING CRITERIA
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CIGS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF KSVC THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO
STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID DAY TOMORROW. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET. RELATIVELY
WARM AIR MASS WILL MAKE SNOW UNLIKELY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. STRONG
WINDS WILL OCCUR AREA WIDE TOMORROW WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS UP
TO 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE AND
ALONG EASTERN SLOPES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL
MINIMUMS DURING THE WIND EVENT. SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT WEST FLOW PATTERN OCCURRING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 59  45  62  40  59 /   0  10  20  10   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        54  37  56  37  56 /   0  10  10   0   0
LAS CRUCES              59  41  58  34  57 /   0  20  20  10   0
ALAMOGORDO              54  38  55  35  52 /   0  20  30  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              38  28  36  21  41 /   0  40  50  10   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   54  37  53  32  52 /  10  30  40  10   0
SILVER CITY             47  34  50  28  47 /  20  60  60  20   0
DEMING                  57  36  55  31  54 /  10  30  30  10   0
LORDSBURG               57  34  55  30  53 /  10  40  50  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR NMZ022.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NMZ022>025-030>032.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     TXZ055-056.

&&

04/04

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