Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
243 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP STORM ACTIVITY
LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED. MOST
STORMS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
LOWLAND STORMS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS WARMING TO
100 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK IN OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE BOOTHEEL
AND GILA REGIONS. FOR FRIDAY THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER EAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION. A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
STORM CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES FOR PERIODS 1-4 (TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT) AS THE
UPPER RIDGE STAYED LOCKED OVER THE CWFA. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION FOR DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
LIFT/CONVERGENCE. THUS EXPECT THE PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE
STORMS OVER AREA MOUNTAINS TO REPEAT AGAIN TOMORROW. INTENSE
LOWLAND SURFACE HEATING IS ENOUGH TO TURN THE AIRMASS UNSTABLE BUT
AREA IS ISOLATED FROM MESOSCALE FORCING FEATURES. THUS LACK OF
LIFT TRIGGERS WILL LIMIT LOWLAND STORM ACTIVITY. WILL HAVE TO GET
STORM DRIFT OR DEEP OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO HAVE MUCH CHANCE OF
LOWLAND STORMS. THUS ONLY MINIMUM OR NO POPS FOR MUCH OF LOWLANDS.
CHANCES TO APPEAR BETTER WESTERN CWFA VS. EASTERN CWFA FOR
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME 100 DEGREE READING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN A MOVE TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHIFT WILL BE INITIATED BY A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH
MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE WEST COAST. MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW FOR A TAP OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO RIDE NORTH OUT
OF MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN CWFA. THUS WILL RAISE POPS WEST ZONES
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING POPS LOW EAST ZONES.
FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS PROGED TO CONTINUE ITS SLIDE EAST FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE ALLOWED
TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE ENTIRE CWFA. THUS WILL BROAD-BRUSH HIGHER
POPS FOR ALL ZONES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY THERE MAY BE
MINIMAL DRYING OUT WEST AS A DRIER SW FLOW RIDES OVER THE
GILA...BUT STILL EXPECT SCATTERED GILA REGION STORMS.

LATEST MID RANGE MODEL RUNS SUGGEST RIDGING TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL NOT END STORMS BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD BE REDUCED. TEMPERATURES TO BUMP BACK UP AFTER A DIP DURING
THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.

14 - BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 05/0000Z-06/0000Z...

MOSTLY VFR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GILA AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

21 - PARK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GILA AND THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA...THEN MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL DECREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GILA REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HUMIDITY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S OVER LOWER DESERTS AND THE GILA
WHILE THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S TO MID 30S.
WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN OFF
THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM THE BOOTHEEL INTO THE GILA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

21 - PARK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 74 101  74  99  75 /  10  10  10  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA TX        67  99  66  97  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
LAS CRUCES              70 101  70  99  71 /  10  10  10  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              69  99  68  97  69 /  10  10  10  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              49  77  49  75  51 /  20  10  10  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   69  98  68  96  69 /  10  10  10  20  20
SILVER CITY             62  93  62  91  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
DEMING                  69 100  68  98  69 /  10  10  10  10  20
LORDSBURG               70 100  69  98  70 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

14/21

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>