Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
124 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOT MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED
THROUGH ARIZONA ON AN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AXIS WHICH WILL ALLOW
SEVERAL WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS. AT LOW LEVELS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
AROUND 1.2 INCHES AND AFTERNOON CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ALSO EXTEND THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH
ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THESE FACTORS SHOULD INDUCE
SCATTERED MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MOST OF THE REGION. SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 50 INDICATE
A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING SEVERE DOWNBURSTS.

BY WEDNESDAY RIDGE WILL DEVELOP MORE OF AN EAST WEST AXIS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BEFORE UNSEASONABLY DEEP BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL BE AN ALMOST SPRING LIKE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH EVEN FORMING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING BELOW AN INCH AND AIR MASS
STABILIZING. THUS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY.

BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY
BUT MODELS INDICATE BOUNDARY STAYING JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA. CONTINUED HOT AND MOSTLY DRY LATER PERIODS AS LEE TROUGH
REFORMS TO THE EAST FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SUSTAINING DRY WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

AVIATION...VALID 28/0000Z-29/0000Z...
CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING WITH MOST
ACTIVITY AS USUAL MORE FREQUENT OVER AREA MOUNTAINS.
GENERAL SCT070 120 AND 250 AGL WITH GNLY LGT WNW WINDS LESS THAN 10
KTS SFC TO 10K FT AGL. BRIEF MVFR IFR IN ISOLD TSTMS MOSTLY MTNS
00Z-06Z AND 18Z-24Z.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SUFFICIENT  MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY (ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP AROUND 20K FEET MSL)
REMAINS TO FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN AND EVNG TSTMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME LTG STRIKES YESTERDAY INITIATED A COUPLE OF FIRE
STARTS NEAR SILVER CITY. BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
LIMITING THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE DESERT LOWLANDS NEAR OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK FOR
THE ENTIRE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 77 103  78 102  76 /  30  20  30  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA TX        68 100  69 101  68 /  30  20  30  20  20
LAS CRUCES              73 102  74 101  72 /  30  20  30  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              70  99  71 100  70 /  30  20  30  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              51  77  52  78  51 /  30  20  30  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70 100  71  99  70 /  30  20  30  10  20
SILVER CITY             64  94  65  95  64 /  20  20  20  10  10
DEMING                  70 101  71 101  70 /  20  20  20  10  10
LORDSBURG               71 102  72 100  71 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN