Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
213 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA BETWEEN AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. EXCESS RUNOFF FROM SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY CAUSE FLOODING IN AFFECTED AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY MORNING. MOIST CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AND DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES
SOMEWHAT. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH WILL STILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
HAVE PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS RESULTED IN SOME
FLOODING IN CLOUDCROFT AND SURROUNDING AREAS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A DEEP PLUME OF SUP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PROVIDING
THE FUEL FOR THESE STORMS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS
RESULTED IN STORMS THAT ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. JUST
ABOUT ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. IN ADDITION...THE FLOW
PATTERN FAVORS BACK BUILDING AND TRAINING WITH THESE STORMS. THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
6AM FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS.

MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
THE FOCUS WILL BE MORE TO THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN CAP OVER THE AREA THAT WILL SUPPRESS
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE HIGH WILL ALSO DISRUPT THE
MOISTURE PLUME SOMEWHAT. THAT SAID...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH THAT CAN STILL FUEL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. STORMS MAY NOT BE AS
LONG LIVED BUT MAY STILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
FALL. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE WEEKEND BUT MAY BE
AFFECTED BY A TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH THAT MAY HELP ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE WEEKEND. FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK THE HIGH WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE GREATLY SUPPRESSED BUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL OCCUR. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM WELL ABOVE NORMALS NEXT WEEK WITH SOME 100 TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE IN THE DESERT LOWLANDS AROUND NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/0000Z-25/0000Z...
DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP WILL CONTINUE OVER FLYING ARE THRU
PD.  SCT TSRA AND +TSRA/IFR VSBYS IN +RAGS AREAWIDE GENERALLY THRU
24/08Z AND AGAIN AFT 24/17Z. CIGS 050-070 KFT AGL WITH
STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT TXZ056 UNTIL
6 AM WEDNESDAY...

DEEP SUB-TROPICAL TAP WILL CONTINUE STREAMING DEEP MOISTURE OVER US
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
AREA-WIDE.  ENVIRONMENT FAVORS TRAINING AND BACK BUILDING OF
STORMS...WHICH WILL MEAN ESPECIALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
PATH UNDER WHICH LINES OR AREAS WHERE SUCCESSIVE STORMS DEVELOP.
ACTION OF FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE WEST SHOULD SHIFT MOISTURE
FURTHER WEST INTO ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK.  PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH
IS FORECAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MAY TRY
TO SEND SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH SUB-TROPICAL STREAM BACK
OUR WAY SAT OR SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72  94  72  96  72 /  50  10  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA TX        69  88  70  90  70 /  30  10  10  10  10
LAS CRUCES              68  93  69  94  69 /  50  10  10  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              67  95  68  96  68 /  40  20  20  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              49  69  52  72  51 /  60  20  20  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  92  66  94  66 /  50  20  20  10  20
SILVER CITY             57  85  58  84  59 /  60  30  30  20  20
DEMING                  65  93  66  95  66 /  50  20  20  20  10
LORDSBURG               64  94  65  95  66 /  50  30  30  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ022>025-030>032.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ055.

&&

04/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1052 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2009

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-241700-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1052 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COULD
RESULT IN VERY HEAVY RAIN FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY
RAINS COULD GENERATE CONSIDERABLE RUN OFF THAT MAY CAUSE SOME
FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES AND ARROYOS AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING AREAS. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AND THIS OFFICE.

LUNDEEN