Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
229 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WET AND COOLER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BRING
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS TO THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND AGAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL AREAS OF FLOODING
POSSIBLE. AN UPPER HIGH REFORMS OVER ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY AND
PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW
OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BUT JUST ISOLATED
AND MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW
NORMAL ON TUESDAY BUT THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS SUNSHINE BECOMES
MORE PLENTIFUL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS AS UPPER HIGH OVER
WEST TEXAS AND UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA FUNNEL SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MOISTURE TO THE CWA. HEAVY RAINS OF SUNDAY DUE TO MCV AND
UPPER LOW IN AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BOTH LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
ACCELERATING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING...HAVE RESULTED IN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. WV IMAGERY NOT SHOWING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SIGNS OF UPPER DISTURBANCES...THOUGH DOES APPEAR TO BE
WEAK DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF HUDSPETH COUNTY THAT IS BEGINNING TO
KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS NOW ENTERING HUDSPETH. MODELS SHOWING PWS UP
TO AS MUCH AS 1.3 INCHES TONIGHT TO FACTOR INTO THE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEGIN A TRANSITION PATTERN OF TEXAS UPPER HIGH
WEAKENING...PROBABLY IN REACTION TO CUT OFF LOW LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AND UPPER HIGH RECENTERING OVER ARIZONA AND THE GREAT
BASIN. TROPICAL PLUME STILL IN PLACE ON TUESDAY SO ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINS IS POSSIBLE...BUT BY WEDNESDAY WITH ARIZONA UPPER HIGH
IN PLACE...DRYING SHOULD BEGIN AND HOLD THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. WITH THIS PATTERN THERE STILL EXISTS SOME DANGER OF MCSS
DROPPING DOWN THE EASTERN CWA...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THOSE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID..25/0000Z-26/0000Z...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR DUE TO LOWER
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
STORMS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 45 KTS AND
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE
BOOTHEEL INTO THE GILA AND FROM SIERRA COUNTY INTO THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER TEXAS AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST ARE
PULLING VERY MOIST AIR UP FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THAT VERY MOIST AIR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HUMIDITY RATHER HIGH THROUGH
TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE 80 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE TONIGHT AND ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S OVER LOWLAND AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY.  THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA AND UTAH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
OUR EAST AND REDUCE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL STILL TRIGGER
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. LESS HUMID WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 70  88  69  91  68 /  30  20  20  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA TX        67  88  68  91  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
LAS CRUCES              66  87  66  90  65 /  30  20  20  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              65  87  64  90  65 /  20  10  20  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              48  67  48  68  49 /  20  30  20  20  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  86  63  89  64 /  30  30  20  10  10
SILVER CITY             58  80  59  82  59 /  50  40  20  20  10
DEMING                  65  87  63  90  64 /  30  30  20  10  10
LORDSBURG               66  87  64  90  65 /  50  40  20  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ022-023-025-030.

TX...NONE.
&&

HEFNER/PARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1115 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2009

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-251700-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1115 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST...WITH LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF EL PASO. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. DRYING OF AIRMASS
AFTER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF STORM ACTIVITY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND FLOOD
STATUS ARE ENCOURAGED.