Small Craft Advisory for Winds 56, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
356 AM PDT MON AUG 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
MAINTAIN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. NIGHTTIME MARINE
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...COASTAL STRATUS HAS PLAGUED THE MENDO COAST BUT HAS
CONTINUED TO SEE AN EBB AND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THE NORTH
COAST. EXPECTING A SIMILAR TREND FOR TOMORROW AS WEAK TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL REGION.  THE NEXT SUBTLE
WEATHER SYSTEM IS A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE PACIFIC FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
DEEPEN A LONGER WAVE TROUGH OVER THE OCEAN.  THERE WILL BE LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DUE TO THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NE
PACIFIC THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK HOWEVER ON FRIDAY THE EUROPEAN MODEL
SHOWS MORE OF A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION MOVING THROUGH OREGON. EITHER
SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES THAT EXTENDS BACK WESTWARD  THIS WILL BRING A
SHARP CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES WITH A GENERAL TREND OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE INTERIOR ZONES AND
POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS HUGGING THE COAST.
THE COASTAL SITES ARE BOUNCING FROM VFR TO LIFR DUE TO CEILINGS AS
WAVES OF STRATUS MOVE IN AND THEN CLEAR OUT. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE LIFR CONDITIONS FINALLY SETTLE
IN FOR THE EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS IS BACKED UP REASONABLY WELL BY
MOS AND THE LOCAL WRF MODEL. STROZ

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS
WHILE THE SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. THE BUOYS SHOW A MIXED SWELL
ACROSS THE WATERS, NORTHWEST NEAR 5 FT AND SOUTH NEAR 2 FT. THIS
MIXED SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA OVER MOST OF THE WATERS ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONT PASSES TO OUR NORTH. A NORTHWEST WAVE TRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY
EVENING, PEAKING NEAR 10 FT OVERNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
INTO THURSDAY. A WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WINDS AND SEAS RAMPING UP
OVER THE WEEKEND. STROZ

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PT ST GEORGE TO CAPE MENDOCINO
FROM 10 TO 60 NM SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS

CAPE MENDOCINO TO PT ARENA OUT 60 NM
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS

&&

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