Small Craft Advisory for Winds 47, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
400 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON THIS EVENING. LOW COASTAL CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG THE NORTH COAST MONDAY MORNING. A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING...MOVING INTO CENTRAL IDAHO BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL THE CONVECTION REMAINED NORTH OF THE CWA IN
OREGON SO HAVE REMOVED THE FORECAST FOR LINGERING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
IN DEL NORTE AND TRINITY COUNTIES. THOUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUILDUPS. WITH THE NORTH WINDS DO EXPECT
THE MARINE STRATUS WILL REFORM THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE MUCH SHALLOWER MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THUS DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH INLAND
COVERAGE AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. THE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR WILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S BY
TUESDAY. THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY...AND SOME INTERIOR
LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY IN KEEPING
THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. FRIDAY..THEN THE MODELS...ALBEIT THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...BEGIN TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
INTERIOR. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...YET DID FORECAST POP BASED CLIMATOLOGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. KENNEDY

&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL AREAS - IFR-MVFR PREVAILED THIS MORNING...THEN
GENERALLY VFR SKY/VIS IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
JOURNEYS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MID-AFTERNOON SATELLITE PICTURE
INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF 030-050 CIGS ALONG THE COAST. A RIDGE
BUILDING TOWARD THE COAST WILL ALLOW WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE
AND BRING IFR CIGS/VIS BACK TO THE COASTAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL IMPROVE MONDAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. FOR INLAND
AREAS - VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INLAND WITH BREEZY WIND
AREAS. DYNAMICS FOR THE INTERIOR LOOKS QUITE WEAK...SO ONLY A WEE
POSSIBILITY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOUNTAINS.  TA

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO REBUILD OVER THE
WATERS...AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER CALIFORNIA NEAR THE
COAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO MIDWEEK. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER
WATERS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN RESPONSE TO
THE INCREASING WINDS WITH A COMBINATION OF SHORT PERIOD FRESH SWELL
AND WIND WAVES PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY THU. THIS WILL ALLOW
WIND AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON EARLY THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION THAT DID
DEVELOP AS THE LOW APPROACHED THE COAST REMAINED IN WESTERN
OREGON. SO DID REMOVE THE CHANCE OF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE FORECAST AS THERE IS NOW
INSUFFICIENT DYNAMICS FOR CONVECTION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
TONIGHT IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH...WITH 20 TO 25 MPH GUSTS OVER
EXPOSED RIDGES OVERNIGHT. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS NORTHEASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK...HOWEVER THE
STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD COME TO AN END ON TUESDAY. A SIGNIFICANT AND
RAPID WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL START ON MONDAY. THE VERY WARM
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK ON THURSDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED FOR THIS DRY PATTERN AS THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW THE REQUIRED CRITERIA.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SCA FOR WINDS PZZ475 FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MON EVENING.
GALE WATCH PZZ470 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GALE WATCH PZZ475 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

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