Small Craft Advisory for Winds 29, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
403 PM PDT WED APR 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A COLD AIR MASS MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS WITH
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT
TONIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET...AND WILL LOWER TO NEAR 2000 FEET OVER DEL
NORTE COUNTY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP
SHOWERS GOING INTO INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ELEVATIONS ABOVE
4000 FEET COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. ALSO WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL
BE GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE NEXT TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON SUNDAY. THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGH. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE RAIN SHOULD RETURN TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA. NEXT WEEK IS SETTING UP TO BE A WET WEEK AS A SERIES OF
TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SO DID CONTINUE WITH POPS NEAR OR
A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. KENNEDY

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST TONIGHT.  THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AND
BECOME GUSTY. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN NEAR 0700Z AT CRESCENT
CITY AIRPORT AND NEAR 10Z AT ARCATA AIRPORT. THE CEILINGS WILL LOWER
TO 1000 FEET OR LESS WITH THE PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME FROPA IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 1500 AND 1600Z THURSDAY AT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. AFTER
FROPA...THE PRECIPITATION TURNS TO SHOWERS AND THE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY. LIGHT TURBULENCE CAN BE EXPECTED DURING CLIMB AND
DESCENT DO TO THE GUSTY WINDS. KENNEDY

&&

.MARINE...NORTH WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF FRONT. WINDS AT BUOY 27 HAVE COME
AROUND TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AND WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO GALE FORCE IN THE
EVENING. THIS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE
DELAYED START OF GALE WATCH ABOUT 6 HOURS. LONG PERIOD 16-17 SECOND
NW SWELL THAT DEVELOPED FROM GULF OF ALASKA LOW IS STARTING TO
ENTER THE WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL BUILD TO 12-14 FT ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUN. NW SWELL COMBINED WITH STEEP WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL LEAD TO
COMBINED SEAS APPROACHING 16-18 FT.

MODELS HAVING SOME PROBLEMS OF TIMING OF NEXT FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND
BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL APPROACH SAT WITH WINDS AND SEAS RAPIDLY
DECREASING AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE SAT NIGHT. DEAN

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS CAPE MENDOCINO TO
PT ARENA 10 TO 60 NM THIS EVENING.

GALE AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA OUT 60 NM.

&&

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