Small Craft Advisory for Winds 18, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
414 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA TODAY. A STORM WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN...HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THEY WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER. THE FAIR WEATHER WILL
NOT LAST LONG AS THE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS FROM OUR NEXT STORM
ALREADY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STORM STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING LARGE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG 180KT
JET STREAK OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER AIR SUPPORT
COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE WILL BRING
SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER TO THE AREA. BY THE TIME THE STORM COMES TO
AN END ON MONDAY THE ENTIRE AREA COULD SEE AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH THE MORE FAVORED AREAS RECEIVING CLOSE TO 6 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS
WILL NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS WARM STORM. THEY WILL START
NEAR 6500 FT WHEN THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AND GRADUALLY LOWER TO 4000 FT BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...GUSTING TO 40 MPH. OBVIOUSLY WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE RIVER LEVELS AS FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS IS A CONCERN.

THE STORM WILL WIND DOWN ON MONDAY BUT THE AREA WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
TIME TO DRY OUT AS YET ANOTHER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MS

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN VERY MINIMAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
MORNING...AND RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND WARMING. BULK OF
RESIDUAL MOIST AIR WILL SCOUR OUT TONIGHT...BUT A FEW PATCHES OF FOG
WILL STILL FORM...WITH CALM WINDS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. EAST
AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ON SAT AND TURBULENT
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. DJB

&&

.MARINE...WEAK PRES GRADIENTS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL RAMP UP MARKEDLY ON SAT AS A POTENT EASTERN PACIFIC STORM
SPINS UP AND SENDS A FRONT TOWARDS THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KT
AND SEAS OF 15 TO 17 FT SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING. WINDOW
OF STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE FROM 3PM-9PM SAT. A SHORT PERIOD SW
SWELL WILL SPREAD INTO THE WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. ANOTHER
STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS MON THROUGH TUE. DJB

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GALE WATCH FROM PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA 0-10NM SAT AFTERNOON
THROUGH SAT EVENING.

HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA 0-10NM SAT NIGHT.

STORM AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA 10-60NM
SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING.

&&

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