River Flood Warning 176, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
345 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOCUSES ON THE VERY NEAR TERM WITH A FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

INDEPENDENCE DAY:
A LINE OF STORMS THAT FORMED EARLIER IN THE NIGHT WAS SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. UNTIL THEN THE CURRENT
LINE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS OR INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WHILE CONTINUING ITS SLOW SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION. THIS
SEEMED TO BE FOCUSED ON AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AROUND 306K
TO 310K. MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF LIFT PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING. SO THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION AREA SHOULD DO
ABOUT THE SAME. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHERE THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW THAT BY THIS AFTERNOON THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
AREA MAY BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION BUT THE PLACEMENT ACTUALLY SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THAT IN
MIND...ARRANGED HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM
ROUGHLY PAOLA THROUGH SEDALIA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MO. THIS WILL ALSO
LIMIT SEVERE CHANCES TO OUR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES AND WITH WINDS
VEERED OUT IN THAT AREA FEEL THAT OVER SEVERE CHANCES ARE FAIRLY
LIMITED. EXPECT THE METRO TO BE DRY BY THE AFTERNOON AND WITH A
NORTH WIND BEHIND THE FRONT IT ACTUALLY LOOKS FAIRLY PLEASANT FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION SUNDAY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD IT SETS
UP A WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THE SAME TIME BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS BRING A WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ON THE BOUNDARY AND WHAT LOOKS
LIKE AN UNCAPPED/NEARLY UNCAPPED AIRMASS A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. THIS AREA WOULD LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK WITH MIDDLE 90S EXPECTED BY THE LATER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY
AS SHORTWAVE AND JET ENERGY STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THIS MAY BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT WILL
LET FUTURE SHIFTS ADDRESS THIS.

CDB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...MODELS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME GETTING HANDLE ON
SITUATION. EXTRAPOLATING ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
AND INTO THE KANSAS CITY AREA...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A TREND TO SINK A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH WITH TIME AS PRESSURE FALLS WOULD INDICATE SURFACE
WAVE CURRENTLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST AND MAY
ACTUALLY PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS CITY TAF SITES. WILL STILL GO
WITH THE IDEA OF A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING AT
THE KANSAS CITY TAF SITES WITH THE MODELS STILL WANTING TO TRACK THE
SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE REGION...BUT MAY HAVE TO REVISE THAT IDEA
WITH SUBSEQUENT AMENDMENTS IF PRESSURE FALL PATH PROVES TO BE
CORRECT.  WITH A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING ACROSS KANSAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION...MAY SEE A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN AT THE TAF SITES.  THINKING DOWNTOWN WILL LIKELY BE MORE IN THE
PATH OF THESE REPEATED STORMS...SO WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUP GOING THE
LONGER AT THAT SITE. FURTHER OUT...THE MAIN QUESTION BECOMES IF WE
WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THAT IDEA
GIVEN WHAT IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT.  HOWEVER WILL NOT BE AS
PESSIMISTIC AS THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST...WITH IFR CIGS MOVING IN LATER
SATURDAY EVENING...BUT SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

PC

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1238 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

KSZ104-105-MOZ028-029-037-040615-
CLAY-JACKSON-JOHNSON-PLATTE-WYANDOTTE-
1238 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CLAY...NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON...
NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE AND WYANDOTTE COUNTIES
UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1234 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FERRELVIEW TO
PARKVILLE TO LENEXA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH
DOWNTOWN KANSAS CITY INTO CLAY AND JACKSON COUNTY OVER THE NEXT 30
MINUTES. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE LIGHTNING
FREQUENCY...PERSONS OUTDOORS ARE URGED TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL
THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3920 9482 3920 9480 3921 9481 3936 9480
      3939 9425 3918 9426 3899 9430 3896 9483

BOOKBINDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
122 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

MOZ030-040700-
RAY-
122 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR RAY COUNTY UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

AT 122 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LAWSON TO ORRICK...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS...ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  RICHMOND AROUND 135 AM CDT.
  HENRIETTA AROUND 140 AM CDT.
  HARDIN AROUND 150 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF RAYVILLE...KNOXVILLE AND RUSSELLVILLE ARE ALSO IN THE
PATH OF THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3953 9377 3922 9377 3919 9417 3950 9420

BOOKBINDER