River Flood Warning 138, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
640 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/353 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009/
MOIST EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
PREVENTED THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM RETREATING VERY FAR NORTH. THE
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION...JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF BUTLER...CLINTON AND SEDALIA.
WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW 70 DEW POINTS AND AIR TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S. AIRMASS IS VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED...CAPE VALUES ARE WELL
OVER 2000 J/KG...POSSIBLY UP TO AROUND 5000 J/KG...AND PWATS ARE
CLOSE TO 1.5 IN. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO-SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AREA HAS TRIGGERED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION. THIS CONVECTION IS MOVING GENERALLY
EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND EXPECT IT TO
CONTINUE TO DO SO AIDED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...VEERED 850MB
WINDS WITH TRAJECTORY NEARLY PARALLEL TO SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND GOOD
INSTABILITY. THINKING ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI GENERALLY ALONG THE FRONT/INSTABILITY AXIS
DELINEATED BY THE LINE OF CU SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY PRIOR
TO THE CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADING THE REGION.

QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR NORTH WILL STRONG CONVECTION MAKE IT. IF
CONVECTION DOES FIRE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO PUSH NORTH. MAY SEE SOME ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL TEMPS...GENERALLY A JUST A TIER OR TWO OF
COUNTIES NORTH. MOST STRONG CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
EAST-SOUTHEAST PER THICKNESS FIELD AND CORFIDI VECTORS. CONSIDERED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA GENERALLY SOUTH OF A PAOLA TO SEDALIA
LINE...BUT OPTED AGAINST IT WITH MOIST WIDESPREAD STRONG CONVECTION
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. HOWEVER AT LEAST FOR TODAY...ALL
FCST MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE GRABBED ON TO THE SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AS WELL AS THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS OVER OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER AM CONCERNED MODELS
ARE TOO GENEROUS WITH QPF OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI. ISENTROPIC LIFT PROGGED NORTH OF THE SFC-850MB BOUNDARIES
APPEARS QUITE WEAK...AND DEEP MOISTURE MAY BE SEQUESTERED BY MCS AND
AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR.

HAVE TRIED TO DRY THINGS OUT ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT
KC-STJ TO MACON...WHICH WOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY. FCST MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE SIGNAL IS NOT STRONG SO
HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.

MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH FRIDAY.

33

OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF AND GFS/EC ENSEMBLES DEPICTING NEARLY STATIC
LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVE TRAIN OF SEVERAL WEAK
IMPULSES WILL PROVIDE SPORADIC DYNAMIC FORCING THAT WILL HELP
ACTIVATE CONVECTION ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY THAT
WILL STRETCH FROM LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH POSITION OF SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY VACILLATING FROM DAY-TO-DAY DUE TO MESOSCALE EFFECTS. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL START
LIFTING NORTHWARD AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE PER OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLES...
THUS CWA LIKELY WILL START EXPERIENCING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BOTH POTENTIAL PERIODS OF HEIGHTENED ACTIVITY. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
NEIGHBORS...BUT LIKELY WILL HAVE TO INCREASE PROBABILITIES AS TIME
DRAW NEARER. AFTER TUESDAY...FEEL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DWINDLE AS CAPPING INVERSION INCREASES.

COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER PLAINS/MIDWEST SURFACE HIGH...WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LOWER END OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE TUESDAY-THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
INCREASE...WITH LOWER 90S POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS WESTERN
PART OF OF CWA.

24

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY TWO SHORT WAVES IN RAPID
SUCCESSION. INITIAL WAVE HAS DEVELOPED CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...WITH IT MAIN EFFECTS TO ROB THE SECOND WAVE OF SOME OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE FLOW. HOWEVER...18Z NAM ISENTROPIC SURFACE IN THE
305-306K RANGE SHOWING LIFT INITIATING OVER THE KANSAS CITY TAF
SITES THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS RESPOND TO THE SECONDARY WAVE
CURRENTLY IN KANSAS. AM SEEING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
KANSAS CITY NORTHLAND IN RESPONSE TO THIS LIFT. BY LATE
EVENING...THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS VEERED OFF...SO WILL ONLY TARGET
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDER EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE BEST
LIFT. THEN OVERNIGHT...PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR ON HOW THAT SECOND
WAVE WILL BE ABLE TO AFFECT THE REGION...GIVEN THE EFFECTS OF THE
MCSS CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH. WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE RAIN
CHANCES...TARGETING NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH A VCSH...WHERE THE 850 MB
BOUNDARY WILL BE RESIDING. ALSO WILL LEAVE THE PREVIOUS TAFS MENTION
OF DENSE FOG SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE
MOVING PAST BY MORNING AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK UPPER RIDGING ON
THURSDAY...WILL GO WITH IMPROVING CIGS BY MIDDAY.

28

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
104 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111815-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
104 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO
SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL MISSOURI BY THE EVENING HOURS...AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PAOLA
KANSAS TO BOONVILLE MISSOURI LINE. THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT...CONSIDERING THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...AS A RATHER UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THIS
POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS IS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
WHETHER THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PAOLA KANSAS TO BOONVILLE LINE.

33

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