River Flood Warning 112, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
645 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AS A COLD POOL IS
OVERWHELMING THE AMBIENT SHEAR. BRISK...MOIST AND UNSTABLE SSW LOW
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUED TO FEED STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. COPIOUS MOIST INFLUX HAS PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THIS BAND OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CONVECTION
SLOWLY DEVELOPING SOUTH AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A LOW TORNADIC THREAT WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS LOCALLY
ENHANCED. OUTSIDE OF THE TORNADIC THREAT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...MODEST
SFC-6KM SHEAR AND MDT-STG INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE
THREAT OF STG TO SVR CONVECTION.

A SFC WAVE HAS FORMED ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST SW OF TOP. THIS
WAVE WILL SHIFT ESE AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST FM WRN KS. THE PASSAGE
OF THIS SFC WAVE WILL END THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THE
COLD FRONT ENTERING NW MO WAS ENTERING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ONLY
WEAK CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL ACCELERATE THE SFC WAVE MVMNT. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
WILL END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING SE.

DUE TO THE SLOW SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...WILL HOLD
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.

DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COOL
SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

DB

MEDIUM RANGE

MODELS ALL SIMILAR IN BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE INTO MISSOURI IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES TUES AND WED. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL PROVIDE FOR GRADUALLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO NRN MO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH. WILL KEEP POPS
LOW AT THIS TIME AS CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE.

DB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THE STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF KSTJ WITH
ONLY LIGHT CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE KC TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT
HOUR. AN NARROW IFR/MVFR DECK HAS DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ENTERING NW MO WITH THIS DECK TO MOVE INTO THE KC TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS BTWN 03Z-
04Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...GUSTY N TO NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY FOR MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-
     MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ033-MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-
     MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY FOR KSZ057-KSZ103-KSZ104-
     KSZ105.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF
KANSAS CITY TO SOUTH OF CHILLICOTHE TO MACON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY BETWEEN INTERSTATE 70 AND ROUTE 36. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BY 6 PM. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. BY LATE THIS EVENING THE FRONT WILL MOVE A
MOUND CITY KANSAS TO WARRENSBURG TO BOONVILLE LINE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT LIKELY EVOLVING A SQUALL LINE. THE
SEVERE THREAT WITH THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE OUTLOOK AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...REPETITIVE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS IN NORTHERN
MISSOURI WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
543 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ103>105-MOZ037-152315-
JACKSON-JOHNSON-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
543 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR JOHNSON...SOUTHERN LEAVENWORTH...
SOUTHERN WYANDOTTE AND WESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 543 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SHAWNEE TO DE SOTO
TO EUDORA TO LONE STAR...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE QUIVIRA AND SHAWNEE AROUND 550 PM CDT.
  MERRIAM AROUND 605 PM CDT.
  MISSION AND KANSAS CITY KANSAS AROUND 610 PM CDT.
  PRAIRIE VILLAGE...OVERLAND PARK...MISSION HILLS AND LENEXA AROUND
  615 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF HOLLIDAY...MUNCIE...CLEARVIEW CITY...ROELAND PARK AND
LACKMANS ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3903 9510 3913 9464 3900 9434 3893 9460
      3887 9476 3874 9506 3897 9505 3898 9507
      3895 9510 3896 9512 3896 9514 3897 9518
      3898 9518

21

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
612 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ105-MOZ037-043-152345-
CASS-JACKSON-JOHNSON-
612 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN JOHNSON...NORTHWESTERN CASS
AND SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 613 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LEAWOOD TO GRANDVIEW
TO BELTON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BELTON AROUND 620 PM CDT.
  RAYTOWN...LEES SUMMIT AND RAYMORE AROUND 625 PM CDT.
  GREENWOOD AND LAKE WINNEBAGO AROUND 630 PM CDT.
  LAKE LOTAWANA AND PLEASANT HILL AROUND 635 PM CDT.

THE TOWN OF UNITY VILLAGE IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3901 9431 3889 9416 3876 9423 3879 9466
      3891 9466 3901 9470

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
640 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

MOZ037-038-043-044-160015-
CASS-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LAFAYETTE-
640 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN CASS...NORTHWESTERN
JOHNSON...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND SOUTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTIES
UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 639 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GREENWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. ADDITIONALLY
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

LAT...LON 3900 9395 3873 9392 3876 9439 3901 9441

CDB