Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
358 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE DEALS WITH TIMING OF COLD
FRONT FOR TODAY AND IT ASSOCIATED IMPACTS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT:
FRONTAL POSITION EARLY THIS MORNING WAS ROUGHLY FROM CENTRAL IOWA
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TIP MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
THIS EVENING. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE FRONT ALONG OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES BY 00Z. 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE AND DECENT SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
TORNADOES ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE FOR A SPIN UP SHOULD A STORM ANCHOR
ITSELF TO THE FRONT OR WITH ANY KIND OF QLCS TYPE STRUCTURE SINCE THE
BULK OF THE SHEAR IS CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. WITH THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE COOLER
READINGS TODAY THAN IN RECENT DAYS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY TUESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THE UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS EASTWARD.

TUESDAY:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE AREA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY:
BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN ACROSS KANSAS BUT BEGINS
TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DURING
WEDNESDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL EJECT INTO OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OUR WESTERN
ZONES WOULD BE AFFECTED FIRST WITH THE ENTIRE AREA SEEING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPTATION OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

CDB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06 TAFS:
LINE OF STRONG STORMS HAS MOVED THROUGH KSTJ...KMCI AND KMKC LEAVING
THE SITES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BUT THROUGH ROUGHLY 10Z EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH CIGS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.
WITH THE WORST OF THE CONVECTION OVER WITH VSBYS SHOULD STAY AROUND
THE HIGH END OF MVFR TO THE LOW END OF VFR. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE SITES LATER THIS MORNING WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY
AND MVFR CIGS BEHIND IT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 00Z
WITH PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN AND CIGS MOVING BACK INTO THE VFR
RANGE.

CDB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ003-MOZ004-
     MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ011-MOZ012-MOZ013-MOZ014-
     MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ022-MOZ023-MOZ024-
     MOZ025-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ037-MOZ038-
     MOZ043-MOZ044.

KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR KSZ025-KSZ057-KSZ060-KSZ102-
     KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1257 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1257 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL BE THE
FOCUS POINT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AMPLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OF
THIS FRONT HAVE ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO GROW...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CAPPING PREVENTING STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. ALTHOUGH WHILE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE WEAK INHIBITION THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA HAS A
CHANCE TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING HIGH WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS. GIVEN AN INCREASING WIND
PROFILE ALOFT...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IF A STORM CAN ANCHOR ITSELF TO
THAT BOUNDARY.

THE FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AND WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY TRAINING STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN
AND POSSIBLY FLOODING INTO MONDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH AN ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI
THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN
HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING...ENDING THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

DUX/NRR

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1202 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1119 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LANSING                 39.25N 94.89W
04/26/2009                   LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER ON ROAD K5 IN LANSING

1150 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SW TONGANOXIE         39.06N 95.15W
04/26/2009                   LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSURE DUE TO FLOODING AT US24-40 JUST SOUTH OF
            RENO.

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
202 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHILLICOTHE             39.79N 93.55W
04/26/2009                   LIVINGSTON         MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF BLOWN OFF 50X80 FOOT BUILDING INTO ROAD. NO OTHER
            DAMAGE OBSERVED IN THE AREA. AIRPORT MEASURED GUST OF 46
            MPH. DELAYED REPORT.

&&

EB