Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WITH AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE DROPPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN.  CONVECTION IS FIRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND HAS A
HISTORY OF STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...
FORECAST ISSUES HINGE ON PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST IN SHEARED AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH 65 TO 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS.  THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES BEHIND THIS INITIAL LINE UNTIL
FRONT COMES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING A SERIES OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP.  ECMWF
AND GFS AGREE ON THE LARGER PATTERN BUT OF COURSE DISAGREE ON THE
DETAILS OF TIMING/STRENGTH OF ANY PARTICULAR WAVE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO BARREL THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND LATEST MODELS SUGGEST SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. WILL LEAVE A
LOW POP IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS SATURDAY MORNING FOR ANY LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL PRECIP AND ANOTHER LOW CHANCE IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  NAM AND ECMWF IDENTIFY ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK TO ONLY AFTERNOON AND ONLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE SERVICE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ANOTHER FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA.
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LACK OF CONSOLIDATED UPPER SUPPORT WILL
REQUIRE BROAD POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST
SHOT AT A QUIET DAY.

FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.  WILL STAY THE COURSE OF THE
ECMWF AND SEE HOW FUTURE RUNS PAN OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEATHER AT TAF SITES WILL HINGE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR KCID AND KDBQ BY 03Z AND KBRL AND KMLI BY
06Z. WITH THE FRONT EXPECT A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY. WILL MONITOR SITES FOR POSSIBLE FOG OVERNIGHT BUT
CHANCE AT THIS TIME IS TOO LOW TO BE INCLUDED IN TAFS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1157 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-251000-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
1157 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING OVER FAR NORTHERN IOWA WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. THROUGH 5 PM THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE EXIST
MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
SIGOURNEY TO THE QUAD CITIES.

THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REST
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BE SEVERE
WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.
THESE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL END
BY 10 PM...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY REPORTS OF HAIL...AND WINDS GREATER
THAN 40 MPH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES WOULD
BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
545 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     HAIL             2 E SCALES MOUND        42.48N 90.21W
07/24/2009  M1.75 INCH       JO DAVIESS         IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HALF DOLLAR TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL.

&&

MAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
552 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

IAZ040-041-250100-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDEPENDENCE...MANCHESTER
552 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

...EXTREMELY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING TOWARDS NORTHEAST IOWA...

AT 545 PM CDT AN EXTREMELY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...WITH BASEBALL TO
SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL...WAS LOCATED IN NORTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY NORTHEAST
OF WEST UNION. ANOTHER EXTREMELY SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ST.
LUCAS IN NORTHWEST FAYETTE COUNTY. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

IF THESE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER THEY WILL MOVE INTO BUCHANAN AND
DELAWARE COUNTIES BY 645 PM.

YOU SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE STORMS...
AND SEEK SHELTER WHEN A WARNING IS ISSUED.

HAASE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
603 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             SSW SCALES MOUND        42.47N 90.25W
07/24/2009  M1.75 INCH       JO DAVIESS         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF DOLLAR TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL.

0552 PM     HAIL             APPLE RIVER             42.50N 90.09W
07/24/2009  M1.75 INCH       JO DAVIESS         IL   AMATEUR RADIO

0558 PM     HAIL             2 N STOCKTON            42.38N 90.01W
07/24/2009  M2.50 INCH       JO DAVIESS         IL   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
610 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     HAIL             SSW STOCKTON            42.35N 90.01W
07/24/2009  E1.75 INCH       JO DAVIESS         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LASTED FOR A FEW MINUTES.

0607 PM     HAIL             STOCKTON                42.35N 90.01W
07/24/2009  M2.00 INCH       JO DAVIESS         IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MOSTLY GOLFBALL HAIL...WITH A FEW UP TO 2 INCHES.

&&

LE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
611 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     HAIL             4 ENE STOCKTON          42.37N 89.93W
07/24/2009  M1.75 INCH       JO DAVIESS         IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            MEASURED WINDS OF 35 MPH.

0609 PM     HAIL             3 S STOCKTON            42.31N 90.01W
07/24/2009  M1.75 INCH       JO DAVIESS         IL   PUBLIC

&&

MAS

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