Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1044 AM CST THU FEB 26 2009

.UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWFA
IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. AT
15Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THIS FRONT REACHING FROM THE
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KICT ACROSS NRN MO TO NEAR KUIN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE OCCURRING IN THE ELEVATED WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND H8 SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG AND WELL NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. STORMS ROOTED CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY
HAVE PRODUCED PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL ACCORDING TO UPSTREAM STORM
REPORTS. ELEVATED CORES BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN OVER DVN CWFA IN
THE SOUTH...WHILE IN THE NORTH SOME ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY LIKELY
INDICATING SLEET ALONG HWY 20 CORRIDOR INCLUDING DBQ AREA.

DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPAND W AND N THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND WITH WIDESPREAD 1/4SM VISIBILITIES...HAVE
ISSUED AN ADVISORY. THE FAR SOUTH SHOULD SEE RAPID IMPROVEMENT
ONCE THE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK
NORTH TO I-80 CORRIDOR AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR APPROACHING STORMS
IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON FOR PRIMARY THREAT OF 1 INCH HAIL. HAVE
UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO FOG AND LOW
CIGS. DENSE FOG WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN LIFR AT BRL THROUGH
NOON...AND POSSIBLY IMPACT MLI AND CID THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH LOW PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING FORECAST SITES...WILL
CONTINUE TO HANDLE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH CB MENTION AND VCTS.
WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT...
CHANGING PRECIPITATION THREAT FROM RAIN TO POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING
PRECIPITATION BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...DRIER AIR WILL IMPROVE CIGS AND VISBYS WELL INTO
MVFR CRITERIA FRI MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A WIND SHIFT TO NW
WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DES MOINES-
     HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-VAN
     BUREN.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN-
     WHITESIDE.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR HANCOCK-
     MCDONOUGH.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

SHEETS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
931 AM CST THU FEB 26 2009

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-271545-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
931 AM CST THU FEB 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BELLE
PLAINE TO CLINTON IN IOWA...AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN
ILLINOIS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80
THIS MORNING AND MAY EXTEND NORTH TO THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR BY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER MILE ARE
POSSIBLE.

WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEASONALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
A HALF INCH...AND LOCALLY UP TO AROUND ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED. THIS
COULD LEAD TO MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM TYPE FLOODING...AS
WELL AS RISES ON AREA RIVERS.

TONIGHT...THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. AS IT DOES SO...THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AS COLD AIR UNDERCUTS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT. AS MORE COLD AIR
MOVES IN...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS OF
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ARE EXPECTED. IF THE FREEZING RAIN DOES
OCCUR...IT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY PRODUCE A THIN GLAZE OF ICE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM IOWA CITY TO GALESBURG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

DLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1053 AM CST THU FEB 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 AM     HAIL             MACOMB                  40.47N 90.68W
02/26/2009  M0.25 INCH       MCDONOUGH          IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FALLING RIGHT NOW. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

WE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1056 AM CST THU FEB 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1053 AM     HAIL             MACOMB                  40.47N 90.68W
02/26/2009  E0.25 INCH       MCDONOUGH          IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1133 AM CST THU FEB 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 AM     HAIL             3 S KEWANEE             41.20N 89.93W
02/26/2009  E0.50 INCH       HENRY              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL ON BLACKHAWK ROAD AT THE
            INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 34 AND 78.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1240 PM CST THU FEB 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1231 PM     HAIL             HANOVER                 42.25N 90.28W
02/26/2009  E0.75 INCH       JO DAVIESS         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1245 PM CST THU FEB 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1242 PM     HAIL             ELIZABETH               42.32N 90.22W
02/26/2009  E0.25 INCH       JO DAVIESS         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALLER THAN PEA SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

DLF

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