River Flood Warning 104, NWS Quad Cities, IA

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
440 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2009

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-111000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
440 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 THROUGH MID MORNING. IF THIS
STORM SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH...IT MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL AS FAR SOUTH AS THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR
THROUGH LATE MORNING. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH MIDDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...THESE STORMS WOULD
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AT RATES OF UP
TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING AS THESE STORMS PASS THROUGH.

AS FOR THE STORM POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER AND HEAT UP
AFTER THE MORNING STORMS EITHER MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OR FALL
APART. IF SOME SUNSHINE CAN BREAK OUT FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 80S...A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE REGION. THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS EVENING. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SUPERCELL
TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES DEVELOPING IN THE OUTLOOK AREA. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT IF THE INITIAL
STORMS FORM INTO A LINE DURING THE EVENING. LATEST INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
AGAIN BE LIKELY WITH ANY STRONG STORMS...AND COMBINED WITH THE RECENT
BOUTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. MANY
AREA RIVER AND STREAMS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SUBSTANTIAL RISES.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE THAT A FEW STORMS WILL RE-STRENGTHEN AND REACH SEVERE
LIMITS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR.

LATEST INDICATIONS THEN SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT MAIN CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER THE WEEKEND WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

12

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